The Russian Federation admitted that the crisis is inevitable
The Russian Federation admitted that the most pessimistic scenario implies a crisis in case of a structural downturn in the global economy.
As a result of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the economy of the aggressor country is in for a serious crisis.
Experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) predict several options for the fall of the Russian economy, according to the Russian media of Vedomosti.
The most favorable option, according to analysts, is activism. It is possible, provided that the global economic growth rate remains at the level of 3 %, while energy prices remain relatively high. In this case, Russia’s GDP in 2023 will move to growth, but by the end of the year, it will still fall within 2 %.
The most pessimistic scenario implies a crisis in case of a structural downturn in the global economy and under the condition that sanctions are lifted slowly. According to analysts, this scenario assumes a more than 6 % decline. In addition, such options as the “second 2010s” and a crisis without isolation are also possible.