Recently, the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (RPORC) asked Russians how they feel about the possibility of Putin's resignation. The very fact of such a poll is surprising.
Political technologist Abbas Gallyamov, in an interview with Unian, explained the purpose behind the Kremlin asking Russians about Putin's departure.
"There is nothing like that in the public domain, of course. However, RPORC does not publish all the data from its surveys. The surveys conducted at the request of the presidential administration first go to the client, and they decide which part to publish. So, it's not a public story.
I have many subscribers, and when some of them end up in RPORC or other sociological center's samples, they write to me. That's why I am somewhat aware of some research. And this story shocked me. Two new questions have appeared that were not there before: "Do you think Putin's departure will contribute to an improvement, deterioration, or will it leave the situation unchanged?" and "Who, in your opinion, could replace Putin in case of his departure?"
This is sensational. I just understand that there are hierarchical relationships in all these structures. And it is clear that RPORC will never dare to ask about Putin's departure independently. But even in the Kremlin, no one will give such permission without coordinating it with the leadership. Heads will roll for this. They all keep an eye on each other. Putin will definitely find out about it. Obviously, Putin personally approved these questions.
It is possible that Putin is genuinely considering stepping down. In a way, Putin is not choosing between staying or leaving right now, but how to do it. Leaving like Nicholas II or like Yeltsin.
Another possibility is that they have come up with an archetypal scenario of emergence, similar to what Ivan the Terrible did. He went to Alexandrovskaya Sloboda and sent letters to Moscow, claiming that the treacherous boyars were conspiring. The people revolted, and the boyars were cornered. Then the Boyar Duma went to the Tsar, fell on their knees, and begged him to return. He came back and established the Oprichnina to deal with them, solidifying his power. Later, Boris Godunov employed a similar story before ascending to the throne. Putin loves history and himself; he sees himself as a figure equal to his predecessors.
It is entirely possible that they understand that a simple nomination of Putin would be very unpopular, so they are devising a dramatic script. They want to stage a nationwide lamentation, where he would stand for election "at the people's request." I wouldn't exclude the possibility that they are considering this approach. Russian politics is so incredibly unpredictable right now that nothing can be ruled out.
This is a very risky scenario. And, as they contemplate it, they have decided to feel out public opinion. Their goal is to either thoroughly plan and start implementing this scenario or to reject it once and for all.
A third possibility for why they are "feeling this out" could be that, after eliminating Prigozhin, Putin is in a state of euphoria, unable to stop himself, and decided to test who is popular and who might attempt to take his place. If this poll shows that, for example, Russians suddenly become ready for Putin's departure and see Mishustin or Sobyanin as potential successors, it could spell dark days for these individuals. They would be wise not to fly on airplanes. I don't rule out this possibility. A dictator going insane is a frightening thing. They can act completely irrationally.
However, the mere fact that the Kremlin has begun to assess public opinion regarding Putin's departure should be noted", emphasizeв Gallyamov.
