"It feels like we have finally entered a period where words have run out. A dead end of meaning. Everything has been said in circles many times over. Few are really arguing, but there's no action. A Rubicon.
Odessa. Five children killed.
During a regular exchange of opinions with a very competent foreign colleague, I ask: why? I understand that Zolochiv or Burluk are absolutely incomprehensible to you, zero empathy, zero action. Kharkiv, where three children were burned alive, is not easily understood. Somewhere close to Russia, unclear what to do about it. But Odessa? Everyone loves Odessa. Crowds of prominent and influential people paid tribute to Odessa and/or emphasized their roots there. Where are they? Odessa is not Gaza, not some hypothetical Aleppo. It's Europe in flesh and blood, it's an international maritime culture, it's clear to everyone. Why is there no reaction? What's the matter?
The first response: "...I don't know what to say. I can give you rational realpolitik arguments, which you already know. But internally, within the existing coordinate system – I don't know what to say. It seems we're at a psychological turning point: are we participating in the war or not? Helping and participating are different, you understand. Accepting that this is our war, not just in words. All rational arguments are for participation; we should participate, take on not only material risks. But no one is ready. Macron doesn't care anymore – he took advantage of the moment and launched the discussion. Now, no matter the outcome, he's smart. Everyone else is horrified. This silence comes from horror. A terrible tragedy. Duty words will look bad, impotent. But no one is ready to say or do anything else"...
This confirms my hypothesis that spring 2024 is similar to spring 2022: to avoid catastrophe for all, political decisions must be made that were not made before. A new level.
I think, in connection with this, the audio from German soldiers – this is not the last move of this kind. The Russians will show videos, maybe burn a couple of not very significant figures. A signal to those on the hook not to squirm. The series of publications by the Russian "Insider" strangely fits into the same narrative – about exposing the network of Russian influence in the West. Coincidence.
The month and a half that Johnson's spokesperson mentioned will be a seesaw. Either Europe will truly embrace the war as its own and show determination, or later it will suffer so much grief that it's hard to imagine. Everyone will tear Europe apart."
