"It is no exaggeration to say that the world axis of history oscillates along the front line.
The model of prosperity in the United States is based on global domination.
Without global domination, America is simply a very large economy with hyper-emission of national currency, an inflated social budget, and a dual deficit (budgetary and payment).
This is what the Triffin paradox indicates: global demand for the dollar strengthens the balance of payments deficit; according to the general theory of money, this should lead to devaluation and loss of confidence in the dollar, but it does not.
However, it would lead to such outcomes in any other country. Why? Because no other country has the option of global domination.
Without global domination, the United States, one could say, would resemble an IMF patient, as America's technological and financial dominance has been the result of the post-war dollar-centric world.
However, in the event of a weakening American dominium, no IMF would be able to save it.
For global dollar emission according to the Fisher formula of money circulation, there is insufficient commodity mass of American production and volume of services.
A portion of money is absorbed in the stock market. But a significant mass of dollars is also locked in global currency reserves.
For example, Ukraine alone has immobilized over 30 billion dollars in its reserves.
The United States vigilantly monitors its global status.
For a long time, its rival was the USSR. But not only it.
For instance, the rapid rise of Japan in the 1970s was halted under Reagan with the Plaza Accord, resulting in Japan sinking into long-term deflation and a lateral trend of development, essentially, into a multi-year hidden recession.
Merkel wanted to build the fourth economic reich from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
The geopolitical axis Berlin - Moscow - Beijing.
Berlin - the head, the center of innovations and technologies.
Moscow - the lungs, saturating the entire body of the Eurasian giant with oxygen in the form of natural resources.
Beijing - the "stomach, liver, and kidneys" for processing resources with the help of a huge human potential and cleansing the overall system with its recycling.
Geopolitically, this axis was disrupted by the Baltic-Black Sea arc.
The refraction of the Berlin-Moscow-Beijing axis occurred somewhere around the "cervical vertebrae" on the border between the Western world and the "non-Western" world.
As a result, the Eurasian giant was paralyzed, and the "head" in the form of Germany can now only "blink".
Russia's war against Ukraine has made its corrections.
The key rival of the United States is China; everything is clear here already.
Ukraine's success was supposed to weaken Russia and detach it from China.
In addition, the Global South, watching this process, was supposed to reject integration around the gravitational core of the Global Island in the form of the Russian-Chinese symbiosis.
That is, centrifugal processes in Eurasia were supposed to begin, just as they did once in the USSR.
Centrifugality is the geopolitical meat grinder of Eurasia as an antithesis to Western integration.
Like a lathe that shaves chips from raw timber to its core.
Countries like India, Vietnam, Pakistan, Thailand, and others, in such conditions, would move inexorably towards America.
"Away from China" - this slogan could have become a geopolitical trigger, just as "Away from Moscow" once was.
The bifurcation point here was the summer of 2023: Ukraine's offensive, the Priozersk rebellion.
The model worked 99%.
Why was 1% missing? This is a question for subsequent analytical studies.
But in a file load of 1%, sometimes plays a decisive role.
There is a direct correlation between the intensification of pressure by Russia on the front and the expansion of space for its geopolitical maneuver.
In my view, this is obvious.
Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to Moscow immediately after the election can be considered a slap in the face to US efforts in Delhi.
Putin's visits to China and Vietnam.
The SCO summit.
Simultaneously, an agreement on strategic cooperation between Russia and North Korea and the preparation of a similar agreement between Russia and Iran.
Saudi Arabia's statement on selling EU bonds from its reserves in case of writing off blocked Russian assets.
Saudi Arabia's abandonment of the petrodollar.
Statements by Turkey and Thailand about joining BRICS.
By the way, Turkey's application is quite remarkable: a country that is a NATO member since 2005, a candidate for EU membership, and has undergone decades of Westernization suddenly turns towards the Global Island.
The apotheosis of these trends will be the BRICS summit in Kazan in October 2024, where the Global South may declare the establishment of "its own UN," but without a Security Council for the chosen few.
Some may say that the Global South lacks ideology.
But that's not entirely true.
The ideology of the Global South is the rejection of inequitable global exchange of Western fiat reserve currencies for real material resources of the Global South. This ideology is a conservative anthropology or conservative anthropos counterposed to the liberal transhumanist anthropos of biomorphic freedom in the West.
Linear perception of history versus cyclical.
Western model of enhancing dominance potential versus cyclical model of hegemon shifts.
The West does not see itself as second best, as in its 500-year history, it has only increased global dominance.
China, however, knows that behind the status of the Celestial Empire lies the status of Mongolian vassals, and behind the restoration of Minsk's power lies new dependency and even opium wars, when countries like Britain force you to allow the sale of opium on your territory — the ultimate national humiliation, followed by a new resurgence.
The revolution of the Global South is essentially a conservative revolution.
It sounds like an oxymoron, but revolution is victory through conservatism, through mainstream.
Yet, in the postmodern era, the conservative agenda moves into opposition, becoming a non-mainstream wave, and it is precisely this wave that emerged on the barricades of the Global South Revolution.
Most likely, by October, Russia will attempt to achieve the necessary results on the front lines.
Much here will also depend on the United States: the volume of arms supplies to Ukraine, the parameters of economic and energy assistance, debt write-offs.
It's strange that for Ukraine, for example, the Biden administration cannot make an exception for the supply of liquefied natural gas, and the EU does not confirm an increase in export limits for electricity to Ukraine (although there is a decision to launch coal generation from Poland for our country, which is good).
The exam for hegemon status must be taken daily; there are no breaks here.
Otherwise, Spengler's theory of "The Decline of Europe" risks turning into the decline of the West, and the keys to the world may have to be handed over to "non-white people.""
