In September, the average daily losses of the Russian army in the war in Ukraine reached 1,271 killed and wounded, according to British Ministry of Defense intelligence. This figure marks the highest since the invasion began. The previous record was set in May this year when Russian forces lost 1,262 soldiers per day during the offensive on Kharkiv. The increase in losses is attributed to the expansion of combat zones in Kharkiv and Kursk regions, as well as intensified fighting along the front line.
In September, the Russian army actively assaulted Vuhledar in Donetsk region. The city was considered a key stronghold at the intersection of the eastern and southern fronts due to the strong defensive positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) and its proximity to key road junctions. Vuhledar was captured on October 3, after more than two years of fighting.
The defense of the city was held by the AFU's 72nd Brigade. Andrii Nazarenko, the commander of the brigade's unmanned systems battalion, told that in recent months, Russian troops conducted between two to twelve assaults daily, and during that period, the AFU destroyed 9 Russian brigades.
"As of today, four Russian brigades continue fighting against us. They constantly rotate fresh, well-prepared troops, which gives them significant offensive potential," added Nazarenko.
The next target of the Russian army in Donetsk region is Pokrovsk, a major supply hub for the AFU’s Donbas group. If the city falls, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and the larger cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk will come under threat.
British intelligence predicts that Russian forces will continue trying to stretch the AFU, using their manpower advantage to overcome Ukrainian defensive positions and achieve tactical successes. The approaching winter is unlikely to affect this strategy, even though cold weather typically reduces offensive operations due to more challenging combat conditions. London believes Russian army losses will remain high, around 1,000 soldiers per day, as they rely on assault infantry rather than maneuver warfare.
According to British estimates, Russia has lost over 648,000 soldiers since the invasion began. The General Staff of Ukraine puts the figure at 661,630.
To compensate for military losses, a constant influx of new soldiers is required. Authorities are searching for volunteers across regions, offering generous bonuses, which amounted to 8% of the federal budget, or nearly 1.5 trillion rubles, in the first half of the year. According to official data, about 1,000 people sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense daily. However, British intelligence has called these figures inflated.
