"After the recent series of successful Ukrainian strikes, the Russian Black Sea Fleet will likely not be able to maintain the same level of control in the Black Sea waters as before and will feel less secure in its ports," as reported by the British Ministry of Defence intelligence overview dated September 26.
The intelligence report noted that in recent weeks, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has suffered a series of serious attacks, culminating in strikes on its headquarters on September 20 and 22.
"The physical damage to the BSF is almost certainly severe but localised. The fleet almost certainly remains capable of fulfilling its core wartime missions of cruise missile strikes and local security patrols"
However, its ability to conduct broader patrols in the region and effectively blockade Ukrainian ports is likely to diminish further. The Russian Black Sea Fleet also likely has a reduced ability to defend its facilities in the port and carry out routine maintenance, analysts noted.
British intelligence also adds that Ukrainian attacks have put Russia in a situation where it has to react to the enemy's actions and demonstrate that Ukrainian forces can challenge Russia's symbolic and strategic "projection of force," which it derives from control over Sevastopol.
