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Foreign Intelligence Service Digest 09 June

Foreign Intelligence Service Digest 09 June
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Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has called for the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions and the inclusion of companies related to the Russian energy sector in the 28th package of restrictive measures. According to him, Nord Stream, Rosatom, Gazprom, Lukoil, Russian banks, and vessels belonging to the so-called “shadow fleet” must be disconnected from the SWIFT system.

Germany is developing plans for the rapid expansion of its network of bunkers and shelters amid the threat of an attack from Russia within the next four years.

Inside Russia’s FSB, China is being viewed as a potential adversary. In a classified planning document, an internal FSB unit explicitly refers to China as an "enemy" and warns of a serious security threat posed by the eastern neighbor. The document also states that Chinese intelligence services are actively trying to recruit Russian agents, gain access to classified military technologies, and lure away disillusioned Russian scientists.

Russian authorities are concerned that a surplus in the oil market could develop in the second half of the year, leading to further price declines. Since the beginning of the year, Brent crude oil has dropped by 12%, and the price of Russia's Urals blend has plummeted by 21%—from $66 per barrel in January to $52 in May. The budget, which relies heavily on resource rent (every fourth ruble), is under pressure: oil and gas revenues fell by 12% from January to April, and by May the decline had accelerated to 34%.

Russia's retail sector is in poor shape, as Russians are spending less. Several construction companies are on the brink of bankruptcy. In the Tver region, wage arrears have sharply increased (750 million rubles, accounting for 53% of the total nationwide). Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian retail businesses earned three times more than now (7 trillion rubles in 2021 vs. 2.8 trillion rubles in 2024).

Putin has signed a law regulating the punishment of employees in companies and organizations for labor discipline violations. According to the document, employers are granted the right to reduce the overall salaries of Russian citizens by up to 20% and deprive workers of bonuses.

The board of directors of RusHydro, the state hydropower company, is proposing not to pay dividends for 2024 or, if they are to be paid, to do so at a rate of 0.075648608 rubles per share.

At least five Russian regions have recently reduced one-time payments for new volunteers. The reason lies in tighter budget constraints, as regional governments are struggling to fulfill promised sums amid the worsening economic situation in Russia. Authorities in Bashkortostan— the republic with the highest number of casualties in the Russia-Ukraine war—have, as of June 5, reduced the one-time signing bonus for contracts with Russia’s Defense Ministry: instead of the previous 1.6 million rubles, recruits will now receive 1 million. Regional payments in Ufa have also been halved—from 1.2 million to 600,000 rubles.

Moscow authorities are tightening inspections of taxi drivers to ensure compliance with new requirements; inspectors will carry out regular raids to identify drivers without the mandatory certification. Lack of certification will result in a fine of 5,000 rubles.

In Berlin's Kunstquartier Bethanien, the exhibition “Boxed” has opened, exploring how systematic violence against LGBTQ+ individuals in Russia is supported by both the state and society. In Russian prisons, LGBTQ+ individuals are at the bottom of the unofficial hierarchy, subjected to violence and social isolation with the tacit approval of the administration. Since Russia declared the international LGBTQ movement as extremist, criminal cases against them have been fabricated. Since the end of 2023, at least 18 people have been charged with involvement in an "extremist community."

Poland has extended the buffer zone on its border with Belarus for another three months.

The situation in Belarus’s currency market heavily depends on developments in the Russian market. In light of the Russian Central Bank’s key interest rate reduction, the Russian ruble is expected to gradually weaken against the dollar—and the Belarusian ruble will follow suit.

Belarus has once again recorded a negative trade balance: according to Belstat, imports exceeded exports by $2.3 billion since the beginning of 2025. This will mainly put pressure on the currency market and increase domestic prices—i.e., inflation. “By the end of the year, inflation could easily reach 10% unless the authorities take additional measures, such as tightening controls at the right moment by banning exports or imports,” noted Alisa Ryzhychenko, an economist and expert in public administration and international development.

The Belarusian Ministry of Education has compiled a list of songs recommended for school graduation ceremonies. Officials strongly advise organizers to “enrich the beginning of the musical program with patriotic compositions,” including three songs written by Lukashenko’s daughter-in-law, Anna Seluk.

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