Transnistria is the last reserve of human resources for Putin without the announcement of mobilization in the Russian Federation.
Advisor to the Interior Minister Vadim Denisenko said that on the territory of the unrecognised "Transnistria Moldavian Republic" there is great resistance to participation in any hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.
As he noted in a comment to Strana, the chances of opening a new front against Ukraine from Transnistria are high. But many factors within the TMR play against this scenario.
According to him, the inhabitants of Transnistria do not want to fight and, probably, the local "authorities" will adhere to the "Lukashenko scenario" and "dodge" in order to avoid open confrontation.
"Now it's 60:40 in favour of the fact that Transnistria will enter the war and Putin will be able to "break" them. But the situation is changing every day. It must be understood that Transnistria is the last reserve of human resources for Putin without declaring mobilization in the Russian Federation itself. wants to attract them. But on the territory of Transnistria, they are very afraid of war. They do not want this and will try to "dodge" following to Lukashenko's scenario. In addition, today there were kilometer-long queues on the border of Transnistria and Moldova - everyone is fleeing from mobilization, everyone is afraid that they will be forced to fight,†Denisenko said.
The adviser to the minister also noted that the "TMR" army includes approximately 10-11 thousand people and up to 3 thousand - the Russian contingent. According to him, there are up to 8,000 really combat-ready people among them.
If the TMR nevertheless succumbs to provocations and enters the war, Bessarabia and part of Bukovina will be at risk.
“Opening another front is very serious. But the obvious plus for us is that Transnistria has no aviation. On the other hand, this is stretching our forces, creating another foothold where we need to defend ourselves actively. Because, even though Transnistria does not have aviation, they have quite good weapons components, including heavy ones. The exact number of these weapons and in what condition they are is unknown, but they can conduct certain military operations,†Denisenko notes.
Whether this will happen will become clear in the coming days.
“In a few days, it will become clear how the situation will develop. So far, Putin is raising the temperature,†the adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs believes.
