The former head of foreign intelligence, General Mykola Malomuzh, in an interview with UNIAN, told how the war could end and what place Ukraine would take in the new world order.
Let's start with the latest FSB statement. The Russians pleased us with the "investigation" of the explosion of the Crimean bridge. What do you think of their conclusions? They blame the Main Directorate of Intelligence and, personally Budanov for everything.
It was expected. If we consider the version that this is an FSB operation, then they have prepared all the arguments, of course, with the accusation of the special services of Ukraine - the Main Intelligence Directorate and its leader Budanov. This version is launched to accuse Ukraine of terrorism, that we are conducting sabotage operations on critical objects - in front of the Russians, in the first place. And to show the world community that we are using such methods against peaceful citizens of Russia, blowing up the bridge.
This is the version they prepared in advance, this is the finished model against the backdrop of big setbacks and failures at the front. First of all, Putin needed to mobilize the Russian population, which did not want to go to the front and avoids conscription. Putin's strategic assessment in Russia and by international partners is very negative. And this situation - our successes - gave rise to very high expectations that Putin would lose, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine would effectively liberate the south, the east, and Crimea. It was not only a military, but also a socio-political, international threat to Putin. Because of this background, we increased the supply of weapons and equipment, and China and India began to change their position.
Most importantly, the internal situation, allowed both the opposition and the disaffected military to begin cautious but escalating actions to overthrow the regime. Putin calculated this option, and it was necessary to carry out such an action that would be significant for the Russians. An ideological symbol for Russia, which he donated. Of course, it was necessary to develop specific actions, allegedly with the preparation of a terrorist attack by our special services. And then he already painted the routes, persons, organizers, and, of course, Budanov, who allegedly carried out this.
"Investigation" of the Russians does not stand up to criticism?
From the moment of what happened, all Russian media quickly showed the picture … It doesn’t happen that someone is already waiting, and pictures in different formats are shown. Immediately, literally throughout the day, verification is going on that this is a terrorist attack in Ukraine, which was prepared according to such a scenario; they showed the route. Our investigators of the Security Service of Ukraine are correct - it does not happen that a model becomes known within a few hours. This happens when everything is prepared.
I conducted hundreds of investigations and even more so, hundreds of operational actions to uncover terrorist attacks. This is complex hard work. It is necessary to deeply process hundreds and thousands of materials, to decide on connections, contacts, motivation, special actions. Operational and investigative work, the work of experts, and the work of international partners in different countries takes time, months, and sometimes years. We see that the operation is grouped under rigged facts in this case. The approach of a car, the participation of specific people, the possibility of using agents of the Russian special services "in the dark." For example, the driver and others. These people were not suicide bombers but performed their functions without knowing what would happen next.
Another fact is that the situation is connected with a provocation. Russia has said that there are five control systems at the entrance and exit of the Crimean Bridge. Technical, radiation, explosives… It's practically impossible to drive there just like that. If we say that these are the actions of Ukraine or third countries, then this is a big miscalculation by the Russian special services. The FSB, the National Guard, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, special technical services work there. I think that the task was more global. Putin is ready to sacrifice the Crimean bridge partially, there was no global explosion that demolished the entire bridge. Previously, Putin, when he had a difficult political situation in Chechnya, he carried out targeted bombings of residential buildings, showed bomb threats, and mobilized the population to fight terrorism. And today he is trying to fight against Ukraine and the West. But, for the most part, it didn't work. The miscalculation turned out in all directions. We were not even afraid of massive rocket attacks, we did not become less united.
I spoke at the beginning of the war, on February 24 I turned to Putin himself through our mass media, television, radio, and said: "Putin, you started the war. This is the end of your regime and you completely. No one can defeat a united people." We united very powerfully, we showed that Putin did not win either at the first stage or at the second and even more so now.
That is, Putin most likely commanded to destroy of the Crimean bridge?
Yes, the main beneficiary of this situation is Putin himself. And Putin gave the order - based on strategic goals.
In addition to the Crimean bridge, the Russian elite has had a lot of upheavals lately: the liberation of the Kharkiv region, Lyman returned under the control of Ukraine. The successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are so deafening and devastating for the Russian Federation that they must necessarily be reflected in the mood of the elites, and in particular on Putin. What do you think the situation is like there now? It is not for nothing that the Ministry of Defense and the FSB talk about this war, that the Kremlin towers began to gnaw at each other. What do you know as a scout?
First of all, Putin is in a tough situation. He's cornered. I say this directly, not figuratively. He has no way out. He tried to use various tools: intensifying active attacks in multiple directions, delivering global strikes, trying to put pressure on us through the Americans, Europeans, Scholz and Macron, and systemic pressure through Erdogan to induce negotiations, but on Russia’s terms. Putin understands that he lost, but does not want to admit it deeply. He can't accept that we're coming. He does not understand why this is so. Therefore, he is looking for the culprit - Shoigu, Gerasimov, whom he cannot replace yet, since this is already a symbol of a systemic failure. These are his friends. Shoigu is his friend, Gerasimov is his assistant.
Therefore, he took command over the performers of specific operations in the East or other directions, but it turned out that he was losing here too. In this situation, he realized that the military and political elites, intelligence services, business and international partners already saw that he was weak. The king is not naked, but very weak, and maybe he will be naked in the future.
Therefore, at the moment, he needed to use such resources that could raise the image. But when he loses, he tries to find the culprits, removing them from their posts, arresting them, escalating the situation among the military, and blaming part of the special services. Already a number of generals and colonels of the FSB are sitting in "Matroskaya Tishina" (Russian federal prison). Therefore, contradictions also arise in the military. He voiced threats at closed meetings and, on the other hand, through the political spectrum.
Through Prigozhin, Kadyrov, the media and "patriots", began to shout on all channels that they should be held accountable, pity, send Russian generals to the front. This is a powerful wave. He decided to stabilize the situation not only by repressions, control, and change of commander to Surovikin, who is tougher in every respect, will clearly follow instructions and achieve success.
Do you think this is how Putin evaluates Surovikin - as a tough, effective military manager? It seems that many probably understand, and Putin has some understanding of this, that Surovikin is a complete mediocrity in military affairs.
He understands that he will complete his task. That others did not complete his task, but Surovikin stupidly, mediocre but will do it. They won't succeed. My colleagues from the Institute for the Study of War and the CIA are right in saying that Surovikin is not a panacea. He will not complete Putin's task, but Putin is in blinders. Knowing him for many, many years, and how he often gets hung up on situations… He got hung up on the need to change chairs, and change the commander. And on the other hand, it will force Lukashenko to join the war, or at least send 20,000 mobilized from Belarus to start some kind of offensive operations.
This is his vision of a global war, as the second stage, "we have not started yet", but it has no prospects. Putin plans to launch new attacks with old weapons and equipment. It won't work. He actually no longer has a training system, a powerful professional army and, most importantly, a motivated one, which is very important. He has an unmotivated unprofessional army, old weapons and equipment, and constant miscalculations and failures on the fronts. Here is the real situation. You can try to slow down somewhere, use some resources, reserves, suppress opportunities, our communications, and energy resources - this is also in its format, but to resume the offensive - not successfully.
The will to repulse the aggressor is crucial to all our victories. Therefore, it must be suppressed. How? To demoralize, to launch mass attacks, which he carried out literally the day before yesterday, to hit infrastructure, civilian facilities, and the energy sector of all of Ukraine. The people will demand what? Negotiation. And Putin will set conditions. Now he will transmit them in Astana through Erdogan, possibly through intermediaries, and will try to dictate this at the G20 meeting.
By the way, do you think Putin will personally be in Astana? Have his doppelgangers become more commonly used? Budanov constantly hints that we may not have seen the real Putin for a couple of months.
No, this is the real Putin. Only in certain situations, when mass events are held, is a double option possible. I know that he is terrified of dying. One of the external markers: everyone saw how he landed all the presidents 15 meters away from him during covid. In the same way, he is afraid of dying from a nuclear bomb, terrorists, and conspirators. He has now furnished himself with five special services that control both the elite and each other. I know his psychology. We had very tough discussions with him at different periods. The period of stopping the supply of gas to Ukraine and Europe. It was a challenging meeting, but we still won then. The period of 2008, when we were on the brink of war, was supposed to strike the Black Sea Fleet of Ukraine, the events of Georgia. And this is the beginning of the war with Ukraine. We also preempted this system. There was a very powerful pressure on both Putin and the then President Medvedev.
He accepts only such arguments - mighty forces, nuclear capabilities, military, as well as critical arguments against him personally and his regime. The third option is a necessarily controlled format for getting out of this situation for him. But these must necessarily be the conditions of Ukraine and our partners. Then it will work. If we press on, this is only a military path, then it is a war to the bitter end.
It is clear that Putin is afraid. Recently, a rather strange message was heard in the Russian Federation that everything was provided for the security of the President of the Russian Federation. From whom - also, probably, it is understandable you mentioned the arrests of the military. Smells like a coup? Putin understands this and is afraid of it?
He is really afraid, he understands that they are unhappy there. Very many representatives of the special services and military advisers who are in his entourage were against the war. They said directly that he is committing a big crime, at least a mistake, and they are ready to refuse him. Some said they were prepared to come to Ukraine to fight against Putin, there were even such people. And then it went on increasing. At the moment, he still holds control, and everyone is afraid for their lives, but now the unification of the military and, of course, the development of various special services, from political to security - they have the right to life.
But these will not be the next weeks, but when we start massive offensive operations. For example, the front collapses, the Russians surrender Kherson, we begin to advance on the left bank and panic begins. There was a local panic in Kharkivsky, it could be global here. Enter and liberate the Kherson region and enter Crimea. It may be the best format, one of the most powerful scenarios. The eastern front could collapse in the same way. In this situation, of course, his partners will sharply think about how to save themselves. These are negotiations with the West and the Ukrainian side on maintaining the regime, withdrawal from Ukraine, compensation to Ukraine, an agreement with guarantees, and maintaining Russia's stability. Because they will also show that destabilization in Russia is a threat to the whole world, because nuclear weapons will be uncontrolled.
This factor works. Communicated with the American, British, and European leadership - they all say: "Yes, we must not allow the collapse." Because these segments will fall apart, individual elements of nuclear weapons will probably be in possession of terrorists, formed groups. It will be a threat to peace and world stability. There may be transitional stages, but with new leadership and regime that will provide a transitional period and a stable option for surrendering all the interests they have in Ukraine, stabilizing the situation in the world, and working out the demilitarization of Russia, compensation to Ukraine. Formation of a new regime with more democratic principles.
This is now being prepared for a possible meeting in Indonesia at the G20. If such a mechanism is prepared, it may be a turning point in the world order, because then a new model will be built. A new model of the world order is being developed at international forums in Washington, Berlin, London, and Paris. It started when President Trump was in the US. We worked out exactly the conditional program of Helsinki-2, taking into account new realities, new threats, wars, including Ukraine, and how to reach the model of creating a secure world. Trump personally, after preparation by the Western world, met with Putin. Where? In Helsinki. Because society insisted on holding this meeting in Helsinki as a symbol of those agreements, and if Putin agreed with such a plan, then he is a participant in this world order.
But now the world has changed, the war has changed everything. Where will the place of Ukraine after our victory be in creating a new geopolitical model of the world?
First of all, we have become one of the leading factors in this world order. Because all the problems of the world and the future world order are primarily resolved in Ukraine – here the issue of war between the Putin regime and the entire civilized world as a whole is decided. Even against China, India, and other participants. The threat of nuclear war and the brandishing of a club by Putin is already a threat to everyone.
We simulated the situation in Washington. British and American intelligence agencies have prepared a film of nuclear strikes on the US and Russia. This is the end of everything, the Earth, humanity. Nobody will. This was shown to Putin and all the participants. So the situation is here. Here is the root of the problem of the new world to build a new system. And Ukraine will be an active participant in this model, as a stabilizing factor on this continent, in the center of Europe, having all the resources of a winner to ensure peace along with other partners.
Is this status of a winner and resources enough to be a leader at least among the EU countries, a full member of this family? Or will we again face the fact that they will try to push us to the backyards of Europe, and geopolitics and will be transferred to the status of a beloved, but younger brother?
It depends on us, on the leadership of the country, to influence global systems. On the team of Biden, Republicans, Macron, Scholz, Xi Jinping and other participants. We have people who negotiated with them, and they listened to our arguments. Because they were reasonable and deep both for their countries and for the world legal order.
If we conclude an agreement on our terms, and Putin withdraws the troops, some kind of peace option will be possible, but we set a clear condition - the withdrawal is complete on February 24 and in the future we will resolve the issue of Donbas and Crimea, this was a separate scheme.
Several forums have already been held in Washington, in Paris, a meeting of the Parisian club for restoring Ukraine. We have earned 1 trillion 680 billion dollars for the restoration of our state with the participation of American corporations, the US federal authorities, the World Bank, the IMF. Mighty financial structures and corporations in Europe, China, India, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates. World grants, politicians, economic systems and innovative economic models suggest that Ukraine will not only rebuild itself. There will be a new concept for the development of the state at the technological level.
We will go through many stages. Even higher than Europe, it will be the 5th-6th generation. How did, for example, the countries of Southeast Asia, which overtook Europe in technological advances due to the innovation model. One of the participants is a relative of one of the US presidents who heads huge US financial structures. He became the executive director of this most powerful fund. This is no longer a Marshall plan, but several Marshall plans for the restoration of Ukraine, and most importantly, not just restoration, but a new concept for the development of Ukraine: economical, technological, financial, and communication. This gives the prospect that our country will become advanced. We mustn't remain on the sidelines.
Our colleague in Switzerland, the director of an institute that studies country leaders, said: "You are out of luck. You did not have leaders who followed this concept. You have super-conditions, very literate people, beautiful land, a high level of technology, you have a powerful perspective, but you are just unlucky that the elites do not allow this concept to develop, and less powerful countries rose."
This was not least because the country's leadership, our elite, was stuffed with agents of Russian influence. You are right – we were lucky with resources, with people, lands and climate, but we were not lucky with our neighbor. Many of Western countries are not interested in the collapse of the Russian Federation, but for Ukraine this option would be the most optimal. And many experts still say that the war for the Russian Federation will end with its collapse. How do you see the collapse, if it will be: peaceful or bloody?
I see two scenarios. That the countries of the world will at some stage, put pressure on this regime. Putin will be removed, there will be some kind of transitional government under the guarantees of the West. We will fully achieve our goals, we will liberate Ukraine and, with the support of the international community, we will liberate both Donbas and Crimea. The transition phase is, of course, what the West and China will insist on. Although with a complete military failure, internal disintegration may begin. Without internal disintegration, without a tendency of confrontation in the elites and national republics, there will be no model of disunity and the formation of new republics.
National republics such as Tuva and even Tatarstan are ready to secede. They even at one time in 2014, after the start of the war in Ukraine, when we talked with them and said that we would still reach Vladivostok, they answered: “Take us along the way, we will help you conquer new territories for yourself and in the fight against the Putin regime ". This is a trend. The situation will be completely different in Chechnya and the Caucasus. These will be clear models for forming new state communities that will form their national economy, traditions and leadership.
Approximately how many such states can appear?
In a broad format - 26 states. Having different republics, they now have tendencies to form independence and blame the center so far, deeply and informally.
Then it is clear why the West has a headache. What to do with nuclear weapons then, if there can be a crushing of up to 26 republics?
In this situation, I still think that the first option will work. The West will insist on a transitional regime. They will agree that there should be certain stability in Russia, on new terms, with all compensation payments not only to Ukraine but also in general since Russia has brought great troubles. And, of course, a transitional stage in forming a new reality, new parties, a government and a more democratic model. To create a new state. And there already as the situation will show. These tendencies may form within the confederation at the transitional stage; perhaps a few more radical and active republics will depart. I think that for now the Americans at the G20 forum will defend such a scenario. They directly support this concept. It was agreed with the British and Europeans and third countries, including China and Turkey.
Perhaps a naive question, but can it happen that Ukraine will grow with new territories? Can someone ask the Russian Federation to join Ukraine as a result of the war?
I think that when there is a collapse and big problems, the southern and western regions of the Russian Federation, which have good traditions of being in Ukraine and a population that can be loyal, will be drawn here, because it is here that new reality, a new state, a new world progressive center is being formed. Crimeans will also be happy to return. After all the problems and even euphoria that were. Knowing the operational situation, most of them are ready to come to peaceful Ukraine and develop following world standards, not in Putin's regression model and authoritarianism.
Let's talk about the operational situation. What is the current situation at the front, what forecasts does it give you grounds for?
Today we are developing strategic operations in the east and south directions. One of the main ingredients for winning. But more promising forces and means should be involved here. Comprehensive actions are needed not only to liberate settlements but also to carry out an operation to encircle, strike from the flanks to the rear, carry out sabotage in the territories occupied by the enemy, and destroy logistics, warehouses, headquarters, reserves - this is a complex system, but it should be non-standard. We need to act on all fronts.
The third corps is moving. We must have all the forces and means. This is space, radio engineering, radar and undercover intelligence. At every step, we must control and destroy the reserves, creating conditions for the isolation of large groups and very significant tension. Cutting off not only the supply of weapons, and ammunition equipment but also food, fuel and clothing for the winter is almost a failure. And the next operation. Not a frontal attack. As they say, there are now large concrete structures in the south. We don't need to storm them. We need to get around from the rear, strike from the flanks, and at the same time, fire defeat throughout the day. And this situation will change. Not a frontal attack. As they say, there are now large concrete structures in the south. We don't need to storm them. We need to get around from the rear, strike from the flanks, and at the same time fire defeat throughout the day. And this situation will change. Now the Russians, apparently in a panic, are asking Putin to leave the occupied Kherson. The same panic will spread to other directions. Let's remember how after Kharkiv, there were panic moods in other regions.
At the moment, the optimistic scenario is two or three months until the reserves are brought up, which are being prepared at, as Shoigu said, 80 military centers and 12 training grounds in Russia. From October to the New Year, we must complete this situation. But this is the business of our command and leadership of the country.
And the second scenario is when we do not have time to carry out such an operation. This is a pull-up of reserves, although not well trained with old weapons, but this will be the overlap of many areas. We will need to crash gradually, especially since winter is coming. These will be complex offensive options or defensive positions for weeks or months. Therefore, it can drag on for six months or more - until spring and summer. Still, the outlook is very positive. Western countries have decided to deliver the latest weapons and equipment of the fourth and sometimes the sixth generation, which is not even close in Russia. Therefore, we get NASAMS, IRIS-T, and howitzers from Germany, France.
If we take Kherson, is it possible that the Russian Federation will crumble after that, and we won’t even have to liberate Crimea, it will return on its own?
If now we work powerfully, and the enemy group collapses, panic will begin, on the shoulders of this panic, we can go to the Crimea. I think this scenario is real and all our resources should be involved.
