Alexander Kovalenko: what does Budanov's statement about a large-scale counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine mean?
According to him, preparations for the counteroffensive have been completed in several directions.
Military expert Alexander Kovalenko told what the statement of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, about the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the spring from Crimea to the Donbas means. According to him, similar statements were made in 2022 on the eve of a large counteroffensive by Ukrainian defenders in the Kharkiv region.
In an interview with UNIAN, the expert recalled that the front did not move for a long time. Then suddenly, in a week and a half, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated more than 8.5 square meters kilometers of the Kharkiv region.
“The fact of the matter is that someone was watching the front line, and someone was watching what was happening on this front line. And along this line, the conditions for this counteroffensive were being formed for almost three months. The situation is similar with the right-bank Kherson region," Kovalenko said.
According to him, preparations for a counteroffensive in this direction began in May, and the liberation of the territories took place after five months of waiting.
“Even Surovikin, who said that some “tough decisions” had to be made, only a month later gave the order to escape from the right bank. They didn’t really want to leave there, but each time they realized that they couldn't stay there because the emerging conditions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine squeezed them out of there," the expert explained.
According to Kovalenko, a similar situation is now observed in the Zaporizhzhia region and even in the left-bank Kherson region. At the same time, the situation in the Luhansk region mirrors the Kharkiv region.
"The only difference is that in the Kharkiv region, where the counteroffensive began, mostly wooded areas, which, of course, stimulated the results of our counteroffensive, assault actions, mobile groups," he said.
The expert noted that although all the conditions have already been formed in the Luhansk region, everything is only maturing in the Zaporizhzhia region. We are talking about the accumulation of forces and means in the triangle Tokmak-Vasilyevka-Melitopol.
"This reminds me of the situation with the right-bank Kherson region. When there was mass accumulation, they were ready to make some incomprehensible" difficult decisions ". Then they tried to saturate the right bank with mobilized, pulling professional units to the left bank. And now we see this saturation on this triangle… Understandably, they are preparing for the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Kovalenko added.
He explained that now the Ukrainian defenders are regularly leveling the potential of the occupiers - warehouses with ammunition, fuel, and lubricants, deployment of personnel, command, and control centers.