Growth is expected to decelerate as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been having a profound impact on the economies in the EBRD regions as well as globally.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has significantly worsened its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2023.
As stated in the report "Regional Economic Prospects", the forecast for Ukraine is changed to 1% in 2023.
According to the report, the EBRD forecasts Ukraine's GDP growth by 1% compared to 8% reported in September last year.
According to the 2023 forecast, assuming that the fighting in Ukraine remains limited to the current territory, which produced less than 20% of GDP before the war, it is likely that real output will stabilize at about 70% of the 2021 level.
“Unless there are significant strategic changes on the ground, Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2024 is likely to be sluggish, but at least positive,†the forecast says.
The financial institution predicts that in 2024 the Ukrainian economy will grow by 3%.
In general, the EBRD has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the markets of Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and northern Africa for 2023 to 2.1% from the 3% expected in September last year. In 2024, the economy is expected to accelerate to 3.3%.
