A three-way meeting before autumn? Possible. Just like a new “grain deal” — but with an expanded number of participants.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he would like to see a Russia–US–Ukraine meeting take place before autumn. Such a meeting may indeed happen, and it could even produce practical results — results that would strongly resemble the situation in 2022.
What is happening?
Let’s look at the maritime situation.
- Ukraine’s strikes have effectively blocked grain exports through the ports of the Sea of Azov. Russian exports of the new harvest have declined.
- Russia’s attacks are close to blocking grain exports from the ports of Odessa region. Ukraine’s new harvest exports are under threat.
Now let’s look at global market statistics.
- Wheat: Russia accounts for 20–22%, Ukraine for around 8% (2024–2025).
- Corn: Russia 2–3%, Ukraine 12–13%.
- Barley: Russia 12–13%, Ukraine 8%.
- Sunflower oil: Ukraine 35–36%, Russia around 30%.
In the global food market as a whole (in value terms), the two countries together account for a relatively small share — up to 5%. However, for individual commodities, as shown above, their combined share ranges from 40% to 65%.
Grain prices have already risen on global markets, while falling inside both Ukraine and Russia. If exports are not restored, shortages and further price increases are possible.
In other words, the situation of 2022 is repeating itself. But this time the problem is not only Ukraine’s exports — it concerns disruptions to exports from both Ukraine and Russia.
Against this backdrop, talks about returning to a “grain deal” could realistically be initiated. Moreover, it could be presented as a “first step toward peace.”
Another interested party also appears here.
It is worth recalling that the 2022 grain deal was accompanied by the exemption of all Russian fertilisers from U.S. sanctions (General License #6, later updated with the letter D, if I remember correctly, is still in effect).
However, in 2026 the United States reached an agreement with Belarus on the potash issue, effectively equalising conditions with Russia. As autumn approaches, Washington will likely be interested in restoring Belarusian exports — especially if this serves the interests of American buyers. This raises the issue of transit.
I would not rule out activity by official Minsk in two directions:
- railway transit of Ukrainian grain through Belarus to Lithuanian and Latvian ports;
- railway transit of Belarusian fertilisers through Ukrainian territory to the ports of Odessa.
At the very least, it would not surprise me if such issues were raised. They were discussed in 2022 as well, but at that time Russia did everything possible — including Tu-95 flights and missile launches against Ukrainian territory — to demonstrate that Minsk could not guarantee anything. Today, however, there is another interested actor: the United States.
Therefore, there may be a meeting — or rather, a series of meetings.
The interests of the United States would be involved, and for the first time in many months Washington could refer to the interests of “UN food security programmes.” China’s interests would also be present: China accounts for 49% of Ukraine’s corn exports (18% of China’s imports) and 10% of Ukrainian sunflower oil exports (22% of China’s imports). At the same time, Belarusian potash accounts for 27% of China’s imports.
This again creates a “starred task” for Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry in its communication with China — now in the area of Beijing’s interests.
It also creates a “starred task” for Belarus’s Foreign Ministry. There is an opportunity to participate in a deal, which could provide Minsk with a place at a future negotiating table and partially unblock exports, possibly in two directions.
Russia would face a different choice: either agree to a grain deal in a format as close as possible to that of 2022, or accept a broader arrangement involving a ban on attacks against all ports — which would unblock oil exports and ease the blockade of Crimea.
But if the interested parties include both Washington and Beijing (with Rubio expected to speak with Wang Yi), a grain deal is possible.
And this could indeed become a rehearsal for future discussions on new frameworks for freezing the war in Ukraine.
