Professional agricultural associations highlight the urgency of addressing the future trade regime between Ukraine and the EU after the expiration of the current Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) regime.
This is stated in a message from the Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business (UCAB), which, together with the All-Ukrainian Agricultural Forum Public Union (coordinating organizations like the Agricultural Union of Ukraine, the All-Ukrainian Agricultural Council, the Ukrainian Poultry Union, the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, the Milk Producers Association, the Ukrainian Pig Breeders Association, and the National Sugar Beet Growers Association), appealed to the European Commission and EU countries.
“The Ukrainian agricultural community has no objections to the European Commission's proposal to replace the annual extension of ATM with bilateral trade agreements for further liberalization in accordance with Article 29 of the Association Agreement, provided there is sufficient time to agree on the future trade format,” the message reads.
According to representatives of Ukraine’s agricultural sector, such a decision would ensure market stability for Ukrainian producers and predictability for European farmers and processors. The main advantages of this approach include the long-term nature of the agreement, guaranteeing stability for agribusiness, a bilateral format with mutual market access, and a flexible mechanism for gradual liberalization considering sensitive categories of products and precautionary measures.
At the same time, the associations stress that Ukraine calls for accelerating the negotiations on the future trade agreement, as the current ATM regime will expire on June 5, 2025. Without a new agreement, the trade regime between Ukraine and the EU will automatically revert to tariffs and quotas that were in place before 2022. Preliminary estimates suggest that such changes could cause an economic shock for Ukraine, including a loss of foreign currency earnings of up to €3.3 billion, a 2.52% decrease in GDP in 2025, a 7.74% decline in agricultural production, and a reduction of tax revenues to local and state budgets by 4.15%.
“If a trade agreement based on Article 29 of the Association Agreement is not reached within the established timeframe, the European Commission must urgently initiate an extension of the current ATM regime for the necessary period to complete negotiations. This will prevent a sharp deterioration in access conditions for Ukrainian goods to the EU market and avoid a shock to the country’s macro-financial stability,” the document states.
The associations remind that the agricultural sector is the cornerstone of Ukraine’s economic stability, accounting for about 15% of GDP, 59.3% of foreign currency earnings ($24.7 billion), and significant tax revenues. The war has inflicted more than $80 billion in direct and indirect losses on the sector, and continued intense military actions make the prospects for sustainable recovery uncertain, underscoring the need for continued support from Ukraine's allies in the medium term.
“The EU remains the primary export market (51.8% of agricultural exports) and the main supplier of key agricultural resources. Furthermore, while Ukraine has resumed access to maritime export routes from the Big Odessa ports, they are only suitable for bulk cargo transport until the completion of military actions. Meanwhile, finished or packaged goods, which require container transport, continue to be exported via the ‘solidarity corridors’ to the nearest EU ports, increasing logistics costs and reducing the competitiveness of Ukrainian goods in traditional markets,” analysts added.
Thus, the Ukrainian agricultural sector critically depends on the European market, not only as a consumer but also as a partner providing stable supply chains, logistics, and access to financial tools for sector development.
“A return to the tariff quotas and import duties of 2021 would have devastating consequences for Ukraine’s economy. An agreement based on Article 29 of the Association Agreement or the continuation of the ATM regime is essential for the stability of Ukraine’s agricultural sector and the economy as a whole,” the position statement concludes.
Given the above, Ukraine urges the European Commission and EU member states to accelerate negotiations on the future ambitious trade regime with Ukraine, considering current trade volumes, to ensure the stability of the Ukrainian agricultural sector and support the country's economy during this extraordinarily challenging period.
