Russia is moving beyond passive surveillance of Western orbital infrastructure towards actively testing its ability to disable it. Experts have raised concerns following dangerous close approaches by the Russian military satellite Kosmos-2612 to X36, a radar imaging satellite operated by Finnish company ICEYE, whose technology is widely used for intelligence gathering in support of Ukraine and NATO forces, according to the Robert Lansing Institute.
The incident was recorded in October 2026, with similar manoeuvres reportedly observed involving other satellites in the constellation.
According to analysts, the principal threat lies not only in the potential loss of an individual satellite but also in the Kremlin's efforts to develop a mechanism of hybrid coercion against European countries by maintaining a constant threat to their critical space infrastructure.
ICEYE satellites have reportedly been singled out because of their advanced technical capabilities. Equipped with synthetic aperture radar (SAR), they can conduct radar reconnaissance regardless of the time of day or weather conditions. This makes them particularly valuable for Ukraine's defence and military intelligence operations, as well as for monitoring Russian military activity along the Finnish and Baltic fronts.
The recorded manoeuvres — including approaches to within approximately one kilometre and prior adjustments to orbital planes by five satellites in the Kosmos-2610–2614 series — suggest a coordinated technical and intelligence operation rather than an accidental encounter.
This tactic of "orbital stalking" offers Russia strategic advantages in hybrid warfare. It enables Moscow to maintain continuous pressure and test elements of counterspace interception without openly deploying kinetic weapons, while allowing the satellites to retain their designation as "inspectors".
Such operations force Western satellite operators to expend limited fuel reserves on evasive manoeuvres, increase insurance and operational risks, and present the United States and NATO with a complex legal dilemma over whether Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty could apply to attacks on commercial space assets supporting allied security.
