It should be understood that the Russian command, at the moment, continues to place its main hope on the ability of the 8th and 51st Army Corps units and Marine Corps formations operating on the adjacent flank (let me remind those who forgot: the enemy has concentrated the 155th, 336th, and 40th separate Marine Brigades, as well as the 177th separate Marine Regiment in this direction) to break through from the southwest to the immediate approaches to Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka, bypassing them from the west.
At the same time, units of the 3rd Army Corps and, to their left, units and formations of the 8th Army Corps along the Bila Hora – Kostiantynivka direction are trying at all costs to “wedge into” Kostiantynivka itself over a fairly wide front.
In practice (according to the current situation), this looks as follows:
Russian marines are engaged in intense fighting for Shakhovo and Sofiivka, persistently attempting to attack/storm both banks of the Kazennyi Torets River, from the previously occupied Vladymyrivka and from Pankivka.
In addition, their attempts to advance from Rusyn Yar, along a chain of artificial reservoirs northward toward Novopavlivka, are becoming increasingly persistent. These battles are very stubborn on both sides and have been going on for almost two months. During this time, the enemy has only managed to capture Vladymyrivka and part of Shakhovo.
In the Sofiivka area (to the east) and Novopavlivka (to the south), the enemy attacks almost daily, trying to break north and reach the Novohryhorivka – Rayske line (i.e., the very close approaches to Druzhkivka). So far, these attempts have been unsuccessful; the enemy’s advance in this direction is minimal, and at times, there is no progress at all. Although Russian “infiltrators” in small groups are almost constantly trying to slip north of Sofiivka and toward Novopavlivka.
Regarding the sector of the 8th Army Corps and 3rd Army Corps, the enemy has achieved more progress. Advancing from the Aleksandro-Shultino direction along the railway, the forward units of the 3rd Army Corps have apparently taken full control of the “dachas” southeast of the city, cut the road slightly north of Ivanopillia leading south from Kostiantynivka, and established a foothold in the city’s private-sector area near Transportna, Vokzalna, Aktyubinska, and Kustanayska streets. Currently, in this area, the enemy is attempting to reach the T-0504 road via “City-Drive” (service station) to facilitate their advance through Predtechyno and Stupochky toward Kostiantynivka.
The enemy’s persistence southeast of Kostiantynivka, in my view, is driven not only by the Russian command’s desire to report “a successful start to the battle for Kostiantynivka” to higher-ups, but also by another tactical objective – the enemy is clearly trying, through the active advance of its forward units from these directions to the northwest and north, to “isolate” the Ukrainian forces that continue to successfully defend the Chasiv Yar area from the defensive positions in Kostiantynivka.
In other words, by reaching the Novodmytrivka – Chervone line, the enemy aims to completely “fold” the Ukrainian defense in the Chasiv Yar area under pressure from the south. This is a fairly obvious goal of the Russian command. However, at the moment, its practical implementation is still quite far off, as the enemy’s assault groups that have broken into Kostiantynivka remain small in number. Their positions are not very stable. Moreover, the enemy cannot firmly establish itself in the Predtechyno or Stupochky areas, despite persistently trying to concentrate its infantry there.
