The full implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) starting in 2026 could lead to billions in losses for Ukraine and pose a threat to its European integration, according to Kseniia Orynchak, Executive Director of the National Association of Extractive Industries of Ukraine (NAEIU).
“Should CBAM be fully applied to Ukraine, the carbon tariff could cost our country billions of dollars in export revenues and undermine economic integration with the European Union. CBAM is now openly recognized as a tool to protect EU markets rather than solely a climate initiative. Revenues from certificate sales go to support their own producers. In reality, this is a trade war under the guise of environmental policy,” Orynchak stated in an NAEIU press release.
She warns that due to inaction, Ukraine risks losing around $5 billion in exports by 2030—along with associated investments and jobs. The introduction of CBAM could significantly complicate economic integration with the EU, forcing Ukrainian companies to seek alternative markets.
“Ukraine could lose billions in export earnings. Investments and jobs in the mining and related industries are at risk. Economic integration with the EU could be jeopardized. Uncertainty around CBAM rules is already harming businesses,” the statement reads.
NAEIU urges the government to urgently initiate negotiations with the EU to ease or delay CBAM conditions and consider invoking Article 37 (force majeure) to exclude Ukraine from the mechanism’s scope.
