A successful offensive of Ukrainian forces in the southern direction will destroy all the strategic gains of the Russian army. In particular, it is about destroying the base of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation.
Military expert Serhii Grabsky talked about this in an exclusive interview with TSN.ua.
"As a result of the successful offensive in the southern direction and reaching the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, we are actually destroying, as I said, all strategic gains. And this is the so-called land Crimean corridor, providing the enemy with water from the North Crimean Canal and the actual transformation of Crimea from an impregnable aircraft carrier of the Russian Federation to a target field for Ukrainian forces and means of fire damage. In fact, it is about destroying the base of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. They will be targets, and it will be dangerous for the Russian Black Sea Fleet to hold them. Actually, according to some information, work is underway to transfer the strike forces and assets of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Crimea to the ports of the North Caucasus, which Russia currently controls. Keeping Crimea in such a situation will be very difficult. We discovered the vulnerability of the Crimean (Kerch) bridge," the expert said.
According to Grabsky, when all the ports of Crimea are under fire control of Ukraine, it will be problematic for Russia to keep the peninsula.
"When we talk about ports, if we take them under fire control, then Russia will not be able to afford the issue of a mass approach of ships. Any movement of ships that will be a vulnerable target can be severely limited. Thus, holding Crimea becomes "The Russians are in an extremely problematic situation. They will not be able to do anything in this direction. Because their naval units are simply incapable of providing counterattacks in this direction," he believes.
The expert adds that failure in this direction will defeat the Kremlin strategically. In his opinion, the dictatorial regime will weaken after that.
"Having anti-ship missiles in our arsenal (Ukrainian army), we can influence the enemy at a great distance without endangering our units and strike equipment. And in addition, we need to understand the cost of weapons. The ratio of the cost of anti-ship missiles vs. ships of the Black Sea Fleet is incomparable. Thus, we are talking about a strategic defeat of Russia in the Black Sea. The Kremlin regime can survive this, but it will be weakened in this direction," said Grabsky.
