At the beginning of 2025, the Russian economy faced a sharp decline in imports, according to the data from the Central Bank of Russia.
Following the tightening of U.S. banking sanctions, which affected Gazprombank as well as more than fifty other financial institutions, imports into Russia dropped to the lowest levels since the summer of 2022. In February, according to the Central Bank's statistics, goods worth $19.9 billion were imported into the country—13% less than in the same month the previous year. Compared to January, imports decreased by 10%, and in comparison to the fourth quarter of the previous year, they dropped by more than a third—at that time, the average monthly import volume was $28 billion.
"Lower import dynamics are partly related to the calendar factor, but still seem somewhat excessive," noted Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank. According to the Central Bank's own data, Russian companies are facing increasing difficulties in paying for imports due to foreign obligations: in January and February, they accumulated $2.8 billion in external liabilities, largely due to changes in outstanding foreign trade settlements, the regulator stated earlier.
An additional headache came from issues with China's railroads, the main source of imports to Russia. Since December, Beijing imposed export controls on a wide range of products—from machinery and electronics to kitchenware and industrial gases. As a result, rail operators began refusing to carry cargo to Russia, according to representatives of importing companies, reported by The Moscow Times.
According to them, goods, mainly metal products—such as spare parts for freight vehicles, metal door locks, welding materials, etc.—have been stuck at the border. The situation has been exacerbated by a transport collapse in Russia's railway system, which is struggling to redirect cargo to the east, with freight transport hitting a 16-year low.
China's export restrictions on dual-use goods, including IT equipment and components, could lead to a 30% drop in household appliance supplies this year, warned Hussein Imamov, founder of the Jacky’s home appliance brand and co-owner of the Shaub Lorenz brand. Last year, China supplied Russia with $115 billion worth of goods, nearly 40% of all imports.
The collapse in imports comes amid warehouse overstocking and the Central Bank's tight monetary policy, which is dampening consumer demand, according to analysts at PSB. The decline in imports is also explained by the strengthening ruble, which in February reached record levels not seen since the end of last summer—85 rubles to the dollar and below 90 rubles to the euro, noted economist Dmitry Polevoy.
The trade balance surplus in February grew 1.5 times compared to January, reaching $11.1 billion, and with such figures, the equilibrium exchange rate for the dollar is already around 70 rubles, he estimated. However, Polevoy believes the ruble is unlikely to strengthen to such levels and predicts it will fluctuate between 90 and 100 rubles to the dollar in the second half of the year.
