The Analytical Department NGO “Come Back Alive!” conducted research on various regions of Russia, as well as identified the weaknesses of the aggressor state.
One of the key indicators analyzed was the deprivation of the Russian population, referring to the condition when individuals cannot meet their basic needs over an extended period. "Deprivation itself is not the driving force behind a hypothetical revolution, but it serves as a pressure cooker where further social processes can emerge," stated the "Come Back Alive" Foundation.
However, high levels of deprivation do not always indicate prospects for working with such populations. "In some regions of Russia, people live in such poor conditions that they are indifferent to what is happening. Their only goal is survival. Nothing else bothers them," says Anton Muraveynik, the head of the analytical department at the "Come Back Alive" Foundation.
The highest levels of deprivation are found in the Republic of Tuva. Among the social groups affected are workers in the automotive industry who lost their jobs due to sanctions. According to the "Come Back Alive" Foundation, the most interesting regions in Russia for Ukraine are those with relatively high deprivation but low state capacity, particularly concerning infrastructure, communication, and military presence.
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"Ukraine will not win if it remains trapped in the opponent's initiative and only reacts defensively. Victories are achieved through well-thought-out asymmetric actions," believes Maria Kucherenko, senior analyst at the foundation.
According to her, Ukraine should play on the mutual mistrust between different Russian power structures. "Russian political Telegram channels are a huge PR market where almost anything can be achieved for money," says Kucherenko. This includes attempting to completely disinform specific Russian structures.
The first part of the research can be read via the provided link, but the full text is not publicly available. It was only presented to the military-political leadership and representatives of the Ukrainian defense forces.
The "Come Back Alive" Foundation helps equip and train the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It became the first charitable foundation in Ukraine to obtain the right to purchase military goods from abroad. In the summer of 2022, the foundation acquired and delivered Bayraktar drones to Ukraine. Additionally, they successfully implemented their most expensive project in history, worth 8.5 million dollars, by purchasing 20 PD-2 drones with mobile ground stations.
