The direct damages and indirect losses to Ukraine's energy sector due to Russia's full-scale invasion, according to experts from KSE Institute (Kyiv School of Economics), exceed $56 billion, with the sector's recovery needs estimated at $50 billion.
These assessments were presented by KSE Institute during a meeting with energy company leaders.
According to KSE Institute, the direct damages from the physical destruction of energy assets amount to over $16 billion, while indirect financial losses, including lost revenue for energy companies and costs to restore damaged energy facilities, exceed $40 billion.
Among the various sectors of the energy complex, the electricity sector has suffered the most from the full-scale war, with direct damages exceeding $11 billion and indirect losses over $18 billion.
KSE Institute analysts noted that since the beginning of the full-scale war, Russia has occupied more than 16 GW of Ukrainian power generation, including Europe's largest nuclear power plant, the Zaporizhzhia NPP, with a capacity of 6 GW; the Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Vuhlehirska TPPs with a total capacity of 7.7 GW; the Sievierodonetsk and Myronivska CHPPs with 0.5 GW; as well as 1.2 GW of wind power and 0.9 GW of solar power. Additionally, the Kakhovka HPP (0.3 GW) was blown up.
As of April 2023, the available capacity of the energy system had halved to 18 GW due to occupation and massive enemy attacks since the beginning of the war, matching the winter peak consumption level. However, since the resumption of attacks in March 2024, another 9 GW of capacity has been lost, some of which have been completely destroyed.
Significant damage has also been inflicted on the power transmission infrastructure, with more than half of the controlled high-voltage substations damaged. Continuous strikes have also been directed at the distribution infrastructure in frontline regions of the country.
Since the beginning of the full-scale war, due to the loss of occupied territories, mass population migration, destruction of large industrial facilities, and overall economic shock, electricity consumption in Ukraine has decreased by 30%.
Moreover, as KSE Institute pointed out, Ukraine has transitioned from being a net exporter to a net importer of electricity due to massive missile and drone attacks on the energy system. According to estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine, the annual volume of electricity imports could reach $1 billion, which, combined with energy supply disruptions and electricity shortages, is an additional blow to the trade balance, currency stability, and economic growth.
Furthermore, the decline in domestic demand for natural gas, the ban on its export, and strikes on gas infrastructure have resulted in indirect losses to the gas sector of $5.4 billion. The sector's direct damages are estimated at over $0.9 billion.
Direct damages to the oil sector since the beginning of the full-scale war are estimated at $2.4 billion, with indirect losses amounting to $13 billion. At least 32 oil depots have been damaged or destroyed along with their fuel. All large oil refineries have been repeatedly attacked and shut down, and constructing new similar capacities could cost over $10 billion.
Meanwhile, during the KSE Institute presentation, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, Chairman of the Board of NPC "Ukrenergo," stated that the primary goal of the expert assessment of damages inflicted on Ukraine's energy sector by Russia's invasion should be to "present the bill" to the aggressor in international courts.
"When we talk about damage assessment, it is not only to comprehend the 'depths of depths' and the scale of our problems. This should also be done for a very practical, pragmatic, specific purpose: we must – and should already start doing this – present the bill to the aggressor," he said.
