This winter, Russians could implement three threatening scenarios in the Black Sea. One of them is obstructing navigation, stated Captain 1st Rank of the Ukrainian Navy Reserve and strategic expert at Sonata company, Andrii Ryzhenko.
As explained by the expert on Espresso TV, this threat is relevant because Russians continue to resort to such actions. To achieve this, Russians deploy ships, aviation, and missile systems.
"The Russians continue this operation, involving ships from the Black Sea Fleet based in Sevastopol. We are talking about patrol ships like the 'Vasiliy Bykov' and missile boats based in Novoozernoe. Essentially, they are ready to intercept navigation if it goes beyond the safe corridor that currently passes through Prybuzhne, the territorial waters of Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine," he explained.
The second danger for Ukraine, according to the expert, is the possibility of missile attacks by Russian Black Sea Fleet ships. Currently, Russians have dispersed their ships – they are not only in the occupied Sevastopol.
"Two ships are in Sevastopol, the Russian frigate 'Admiral Makarov' and the corvette 'Cyclone.' There are also ships in Novorossiysk and three ships at the Tuapse base. All of them can use their missiles to strike Ukraine. In total, 56 missiles can be used in a salvo. However, we need to add another 4 ships based in the Caspian Sea with the same missiles, making it 32. So, a total of 88 missiles is quite a lot; they can cause significant damage," emphasized Ryzhenko.
The expert noted that Ukrainian air defense has learned to intercept 'Kalibr' missiles, so now the Russians use them in combination with other weapons, notably 'Shahed's. The goal of such attacks is to identify air defense assets and find routes that would bypass these systems.
The third threat, according to Ryzhenko, relates to an amphibious operation. He pointed out that the Russians have forces for this in the Black Sea. However, such an operation is currently not feasible because the conditions for it do not exist.
