In 2030, Ukrainian biomethane producers will be able to supply up to 1 billion cubic meters of this fuel to the EU, says Maciej Zaniewicz, an expert from the Green Deal Ukraine project and senior analyst at Forum Energii (Poland), who is a co-author of the study "Potential for Cooperation Between Ukraine and the EU in Biomethane," conducted by Green Deal Ukraine and the Ukrainian Climate Office.
"In our opinion, as well as the opinion of Ukrainian analysts, the actual production volumes of biomethane in Ukraine could account for roughly 0.5% of the EU's demand. We are talking about approximately 1 billion cubic meters of biomethane in 2030," said Zaniewicz in an interview with the "Energy Reform" project.
According to him, the most interesting aspect of the study on the potential for cooperation in this area is that Ukrainian biomethane has already found buyers in the EU at market prices.
"At the same time, the demand in the European Union is so high that Ukrainian imports will not interfere with the development of the industry within the EU," the expert believes.
However, he noted that Ukrainian biomethane "will not become an export hit for Ukraine or a panacea for the EU."
"I mean that it will not fully replace the import of natural gas that is coming to the EU. Yes, it is an important component for diversifying gas supplies, but it will not replace imports entirely," explained Zaniewicz.
He also pointed to the risk that pro-Russian circles may try to spread disinformation, as they did with trucks and farmers. "That supposedly Ukrainian biomethane producers will push out European producers. And that’s why we wanted to do a reliable analysis based on objective data to show how this can really unfold," noted the expert.
As previously reported, the first batch of Ukrainian biomethane, 67 thousand cubic meters, was exported on February 7, 2025, by the energy holding Vitagro, whose plant in the Khmelnytskyi region has a capacity of 3 million cubic meters of biomethane per year. The export was made to Germany.
The MHP "Oril-Leader" biomethane plant (Dnipropetrovsk region) exported 27.4 thousand cubic meters of biomethane on February 11, becoming the second Ukrainian company to make such an export. MHP exported biomethane through pipelines across the Ukrainian-Polish border to Germany. Its buyer was the company Vitol. The capacity of "Oril-Leader" is 11 million cubic meters per year.
The agribusiness holding "Hals Agro" has built a biomethane plant in the Chernihiv region with a capacity of 3 million cubic meters. The facility has already been connected to the grid and is preparing to export its product.
Georgiy Geletukha, head of the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine (BAU), stated at the Ukrainian Investment Congress in Kyiv in early March that Ukraine could soon become the main supplier of biomethane to the European Union. In the long run, Ukrainian product share in the European market could reach 20%.
Geletukha emphasized that Europe aims to consume about 35 billion cubic meters of biomethane by 2030, while European production is currently estimated at around 3 billion cubic meters. Given the current market trends, the EU will be able to increase its own production to 20 billion cubic meters of biomethane within five years.
The expert explained the delay in the development of the biomethane market in Europe by the lack of large free agricultural lands and, accordingly, the inability to produce the necessary amount of raw materials for processing.
He also pointed to Europe's new plans after 2030, which include producing and consuming 100 billion cubic meters of biomethane by 2050. However, he believes that even this target will not be reached due to the lack of raw materials.
According to his estimates, if Ukraine were currently producing up to 15 billion cubic meters of biomethane, the EU "would buy it all with enthusiasm."
He further noted that in 2025, the circle of Ukrainian biomethane producers and potential exporters will expand. New companies joining the list include another MHP plant, the Teofipol Energy Company, and the Yuzefov-Mykolaiv Biogas Company. Collectively, Ukrainian production will produce 111 million cubic meters of biomethane annually.
With a production cost of biomethane from plant waste at EUR 900 per 1,000 cubic meters or from livestock waste, including manure or bedding, at EUR 1,100-1,200 per 1,000 cubic meters, Ukraine could receive up to EUR 100 billion annually from the export of this product to the EU, predicts Geletukha.
