Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2025 grew by 2.1% compared with the third quarter of 2024, while in the second quarter the figure was 0.8% and in the first quarter 0.9%, the State Statistics Service reported on Wednesday.
According to the data, compared with the previous quarter and adjusted for seasonality, real GDP increased by 0.8%, up from 0.2% in the preceding quarter.
As reported earlier, at the end of October the National Bank also estimated Ukraine’s real GDP growth in Q3 2025 at 2.1% year-on-year, whereas previously it had forecast 2.4%.
Under the updated outlook, the estimate for real GDP growth in Q4 2025 has been revised down to 3.4% from 3.5% in July.
Overall, the National Bank has downgraded its forecast for GDP growth in 2025 to 1.9% from 2.1% due to energy shortages, destruction of gas extraction facilities, and labor shortages. For 2026, the forecast has been lowered from 2.3% to 2%. The inflation forecast for this year was improved from 9.7% to 9.2%, while next year’s remains at 6.6%.
According to State Statistics Service data, Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2024 slowed to 2.9% from 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% contraction in 2022, the first year of Russia’s full-scale aggression.
