By Andrian Prokip, UIM Expert, Head of the "Energy" Programme
On the morning of August 26, the Russian forces launched a large-scale attack on the Ukrainian energy system. What are the consequences of the shelling, and when can we expect the situation to stabilize?
Forecasting developments in Ukraine's energy sector has always been a challenging and thankless task. Primarily, the inconsistency in government energy policy led to many plans and strategies being unrealized.
The war and energy terror have only complicated forecasting—one can never know when a massive shelling might occur, how significant the damage to the energy infrastructure will be, and consequently, the extent of shortages and outages.
A similar situation has occurred recently. The first half of last week was marked by shortages and outages. Ukraine received emergency aid from the EU twice. However, the second half of the week saw some relief as the heat eased and thus reduced demand. Additionally, on Friday, following scheduled maintenance work, Energoatom connected a block of the nuclear power plant to the grid. Unexpectedly, there were no outages, and on Sunday, for the first time in many weeks, we did not import electricity for several hours.
Understanding the dynamics of the situation in the energy system, the system operator Ukrenergo on Friday, August 23, announced the possibility of allowing exports during surplus hours. This was to occur during the day while active solar generation ensured a surplus, and to balance the energy system, a command was to be given to limit the operation of solar power plants.
However, the war made adjustments to these plans, and by Monday morning, the surplus was replaced by acute shortages and multi-hour emergency outages—the energy system suffered one of the most massive attacks since the beginning of energy terror, which has been ongoing since mid-September 2022. The attack targeted substations—both power transmission systems and individual power plants, including Kyiv HPP, with video footage of its damage circulating online. Significant damage also occurred to distribution networks in several regions. Overall, damage to energy infrastructure has been reported in 15 regions.
It can be confidently stated that the goal of the attack was to cause a “blackout” in at least part of the country. The consequences of this shelling complicated the transmission of electricity from western regions to Central and Eastern Ukraine, creating additional challenges for the energy system.
Currently, there are no consolidated data on the extent of power losses. However, there is hope that in the next few days, the situation will somewhat normalize and we will return to a regime of predictable schedules.
In September, the situation might even improve significantly, potentially leading to no outages. However, making any predictions is again a thankless task. What is almost certain is that winter will be challenging.
