The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published the global forecast balance for key agricultural crops for the 2025/26 marketing year, reports the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club.
According to USDA forecasts, Ukraine’s wheat production in 2025/26 MY will decrease by 1 million tons to 22.0 million tons. Correspondingly, wheat exports are also expected to decrease by 1.0 million tons to 15.5 million tons. As for corn, production and export forecasts remain unchanged at 30.5 million tons and 15.5 million tons, respectively.
The global wheat market forecast for 2025/26 MY anticipates a reduction in supply (due to lower beginning stocks), increased consumption, decreased trade, and reduced ending stocks.
Global wheat production for 2025/26 MY remains steady at 808.6 million tons. However, production will decline in Canada (by 1.0 million tons to 35.0 million tons), Ukraine (-1.0 million tons to 22.0 million tons), and Iran, offset by increases in Kazakhstan (+1.0 million tons to 15.5 million tons), the EU (+0.7 million tons to 137.3 million tons), Pakistan, and Russia (+0.5 million tons to 83.5 million tons).
Global consumption will increase by 0.8 million tons to 810.6 million tons, mainly driven by higher feed and residual use in Kazakhstan and Thailand.
Global trade will decrease by 1.2 million tons to 213.1 million tons due to reduced exports from the EU (-2.0 million tons to 32.5 million tons) and Ukraine (-1.0 million tons), partially offset by increased exports from Russia (+1.0 million tons to 46.0 million tons) and the USA (+0.7 million tons to 23.1 million tons).
Projected global ending stocks for 2025/26 MY are lowered by 1.2 million tons to 261.5 million tons, primarily due to reductions in Canada and the EU.
The global corn market forecast for 2025/26 MY expects reduced production, increased consumption, stable exports, and lower ending stocks.
Global corn production is reduced by 2.3 million tons to 1,263.7 million tons. Corn production will decline in the USA (-2.9 million tons to 398.9 million tons) and increase in Canada (+0.3 million tons to 15.0 million tons) and Mexico (+0.3 million tons to 24.8 million tons). Forecasts for global trade volumes remain unchanged at 195.8 million tons. Global corn stocks will decrease by 3.2 million tons to 272.1 million tons.
