Viktor Andrusiv: Avdiivka and the "Prigozhin trap"

"The fate of Avdiivka today depends to a great extent on the lessons from Bakhmut. Since the scenarios are remarkably similar in essence. The occupiers did not plan to stage such a grand battle for Bakhmut. Although they do not possess strategic thinking, they can't be called complete idiots either. Just like with Avdiivka, they initially tried to encircle Bakhmut from the flanks and cut off the supplies, but they suffered colossal losses. This led to what I call the "Prigozhin trap." This opinion was expressed by a former adviser to the Office of the President and Interior Minister, Viktor Andrusiv.

"The essence of this trap is that, in the face of initially staggering losses, the only way to justify them is to achieve results. In this situation, the losses no longer matter. Russians do not have the concept of cost; they focus on results. That's why Prigozhin calmly stated that the losses amounted to nearly 50,000 killed and wounded, and this did not shock anyone except Girkin. Why? Because they took Bakhmut.

The situation in Avdiivka falls completely into Prigozhin's trap. Having suffered massive losses in equipment and personnel, the orcish generals now have no choice but to take the city at any cost, and that is exactly what they will do.

What does this mean for us (for Ukraine)? Once again, it's akin to the lessons of Bakhmut. Bakhmut, by itself, was never of strategic value, but it served a strategic purpose. Firstly, it bought us time to prepare new brigades and acquire weapons for our counteroffensive. Secondly, the destruction of Russian forces prevented them from preparing their own offensives and operations, as most of their resources were directed toward Bakhmut. Unfortunately, at a certain point, concentrating on Bakhmut as a goal in itself, rather than the functions it served, caused us significant harm. And I hope we won't repeat that lesson.

The essence lies not in whether to preserve or abandon Avdiivka at any cost, but in how we can use the "Prigozhin's trap" against the occupiers to gain an advantage on the entire front, not just in one battle."