"From the very beginning of the war, China was an ally of Russia. However, it did not actively participate in it from the start. Clearly, the Chinese sincerely believed in "Kyiv in three days," and they did not see a need for their direct assistance. But after Russia's defeats in '22, the risk of Putin losing became very high, and China began to take a more public and active stance.
However, in my opinion, the turning point was the demarche by Prigozhin. In this sense, it played into Putin's hands, as it revealed how weak the Kremlin regime was. This situation alarmed the Chinese, as they realized they could easily end up with a regime in Russia that would make concessions to the West, especially on Chinese issues. Therefore, after this event, China not only provided assistance through statements and economically but also actively participated in the development of the Russian military-industrial complex. We are feeling the consequences of this very strongly now, as the destruction of hundreds of units of Russian equipment has had little impact on their assault pace.
Biden has finally become concerned about the China problem. From the very beginning, Americans didn't want to spoil relations with the Chinese and believed that their assistance to Russia was minimal. They turned a blind eye to billions of Chinese dollars for Russian cheap oil bypassing sanctions, turned a blind eye to various joint political statements between Russia and China. Now, when they finally realized it, they are facing the Moscow-Beijing axis. To understand the scale, Russia-China trade volume was $140 billion in 2021 and $240 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of 26% in 2023. However, Biden, whose motto could be "always late," woke up too late this time. Against the backdrop of American elections in the fall, the Chinese will not agree to anything with him.
Today, Blinken threatened China with additional sanctions. But it is clear that there is no point in negotiating with someone who has a good chance of losing half a year before the elections. Everything Biden should have done was make sense to do last summer when the Chinese began actively helping the Russian military-industrial complex. Given the timelines, there would have been an opportunity to reach compromises with the Chinese on ending hostilities in Ukraine and transitioning to negotiations. Now, Biden has once again put himself in a difficult position, as he will find it challenging to present a plan to end the war without considering China's behavior, especially in light of Congress's demands."
