I have written before that Russia will use various forms of negotiations aimed at ending the war to serve its own interests. But as things stand today, the Russians have no genuine interest in reaching any real agreements.
The fact is that peace cannot be achieved on the eve of winter — at least not unless it is on Russia's terms. Putin and his General Staff believe they will break us this winter. Russia's General Staff also has a military plan to capture the entirety of Donbas by May 2027.
We already know from Putin's conversations with the leaders of Norway and Finland that the Russians will come to the negotiating table with their usual demands: surrender Donbas, recognise the occupied territories as Russian, reduce the size of Ukraine's army, prohibit NATO membership and lift sanctions. Once again, there will be nothing to negotiate.
Putin needs negotiations to deter the West from imposing further sanctions and increasing assistance to Ukraine. As long as the likes of Trump, Le Pen and Weidel can claim that Putin wants a deal, and have something to point to as evidence, it will be difficult for our partners to challenge that narrative. On the other hand, any strengthening of Ukraine during this period will be portrayed as an attempt to derail the peace process. That is why using negotiations in this way is extremely advantageous for Putin as he continues the war.
We will, of course, actively participate in any negotiations, even those that are merely for show. But our fundamental position must be that, throughout the negotiating process, we have all the necessary assistance packages to counter the intensification of Russian attacks. And since Trump is particularly vulnerable right now and has a strong need for these negotiations to take place, this is precisely the moment to put pressure on him to secure greater assistance.
To achieve this, our ambassador to the United States needs to become actively involved. The ambassador must work closely with the administration and Congress to ensure that we receive the maximum possible support during the negotiations.
Except that we don't have an ambassador there...
