60% of the surveyed respondents expressed unwavering confidence in Ukraine's victory in the war against Russia, with only 4% indicating that Russia would prevail, according to the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
"Although after nearly two years of large-scale invasion, we observe some decrease in belief in Ukraine's Victory, nevertheless, despite everything, the absolute majority of Ukrainians continue to maintain optimism. As of early February 2024, 89% of Ukrainians overall believed in Ukraine's Victory, with 60% of them unequivocally convinced of this. In May 2022, 95% believed in Victory, with 80% unequivocally convinced of this. Currently, only 4% are more or less convinced that Russia will win (in May 2022, there were 1%)," the report said, posted on the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology website on Wednesday.
It is noted that in all regions, at least 80% of respondents believe in Ukraine's victory, with at least 57% unequivocally convinced of this.
At the same time, 24% of Ukrainians believe that the situation on the battlefield is in favor of Ukraine, 15% in favor of Russia, and almost half of the respondents (47%) believe that the situation is not in favor of either side.
The opinions of residents in different regions are quite similar: 26% of respondents from western regions believe the situation is in favor of Ukraine, 11% in favor of Russia, and 45% in favor of neither side. In central regions, 22% believe the situation is in favor of Ukraine, 20% in favor of Russia, and 46% in favor of neither side. Meanwhile, 22% of respondents from the south believe the situation on the front lines is in favor of Ukraine, 12% in favor of Russia, and 52% in favor of neither side. 25% of residents from the east believe the situation is in favor of Ukraine, 16% in favor of Russia, and 49% in favor of neither side.
According to the survey results, the vast majority of Ukrainians (65%) believe that the war will end with Ukraine regaining control of all territories, including Donbas and Crimea, with 14% believing that the fighting will be moved to Russian territory. In May 2023, the proportion of those who believed in the restoration of territorial integrity was 71%.
At the same time, there has been an increase in the number of those who assume that there may be certain losses as a result of the war (from 25% in May 2022 to 32% in February 2024). Of the 32%, most (19%) believe that the war will end with the retention of the territories currently controlled. Another 9% believe in the liberation of all territories that Ukraine controlled before February 24, 2022. The remaining 4% talk about the liberation of all territories including Donbas but excluding Crimea.
In all regions of Ukraine, 63-66% believe in the complete restoration of territorial integrity, while 31-34% believe that there may be certain losses.
It is noted that 73% of respondents claim that they are ready to endure the war for as long as necessary, while 3% are ready to endure for another year, 3% are ready to endure for another six months, and only a few months - 18%. These indicators have hardly changed since May 2022 (71% were ready to endure as long as necessary, in December 2023 - 73%).
The survey results by regions are similar: 79% of residents in the west, 72% in the center, 68% in the south, and 70% in the east are ready to endure the war for as long as necessary.
At the same time, the number of respondents agreeing with the idea that Ukraine should seek a diplomatic solution to end the war has increased (from 59% in May 2022 to 72%). It should be noted that the formulation of the question referred simply to this process, not specific actions.
Meanwhile, the percentage of those who believe that Russia can only be defeated militarily decreased from 35% in May 2022 to 23% in February 2024.
The survey was conducted from February 5th to 10th, 2024, using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on random sampling of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting). A total of 1,202 respondents residing in all regions of Ukraine (except for Crimea) were surveyed. The survey targeted adults (aged 18 and older) who were residents of Ukraine at the time of the survey and lived in territories controlled by the Ukrainian authorities before February 24, 2022. Residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian government were not included in the sample, and the survey was not conducted with citizens abroad.
Formally, under ordinary circumstances, the statistical margin of error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and considering the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 3.2% for indicators close to 50%, 2.7% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% for indicators close to 10%, and 1.4% for indicators close to 5%.
