Aleksander Kovalenko: Russia’s big offensive…
“Recently I have been hearing various suggestions that Russia has now accumulated a tremendous resource of forces for a decisive offensive. In this case, completely different numbers are called. Someone claims a strike potential of 200 thousand; someone talks about 500 thousand, there are even versions of millions…,” military observer Alexander Kovalenko wrote on his Telegram blog.
Kovalenko also recalled that as of February 24, 2022, about 180,000 servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces took part in the invasion of Ukraine. Russia has been cumbersomely and not secretly moving this mass to the borders with Ukraine since October 2021, having deployed a starting one, the transfer back in the winter of 2021.
“A perfectly valid question arises. Is it possible to deploy 200,000, 500,000, or a million forces and related assets near the borders with Ukraine completely unnoticed? No.
In addition, the mobilization potential of Russia is not capable of accumulating such a number of personnel in the shortest possible time,” he wrote.
Alexander Kovalenko also noted that, at present, the average monthly compensation for losses among Russians has reached 50,000. At the same time, mobilization opportunities do not exceed 100,000 per month. That is, is, in order to accumulate a potential resource of 200 thousand, a period of 4 months is needed, 500 thousand – 10 months.
In turn, the current rate of mobilization in the Russian Federation is much lower than the bar of 100 thousand, and the highest figures were in October 2022. That is, mobilization continues, but not so actively and intensively as to exceed the need for 50 thousand monthly.
“Of course, Russia is now preparing for offensive actions. Russia is always ready for them. Moreover, their passionate desire to advance to Vugledar, to get out of the shackles in the Kremenna area, hints at a wide coverage in the Donbas bridgehead.
This plan seems somewhat schizophrenic because without having enough equipment, artillery, providing units with combat kits, and supporting artillery, it would be suicidal to carry out such an offensive. But people with schizophrenia, that’s what schizophrenics are for, so as not to be friends with common sense.
And it is this activity that will become the biggest offensive of Russia. Which, in turn, does not have the resource that many people talk about but has every chance of choking in the bud. Especially if in a number of locations the initiative is intercepted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the plans of the military operation are drastically violated,” the expert summarized.