By Aleksey Kopytko

"The incident involving the A-50 and Il-22M aircraft over the Sea of Azov is comparable to the comprehensive damage level seen in the destruction of the cruiser 'Moskva.' Currently, desperate measures are being taken in Russia to downplay the significance of what happened, only confirming that something genuinely painful occurred.

Russian authorities actively propagate the narrative of an "incident," in which a unique and expensive long-range reconnaissance aircraft was shot down, and at least a flying command post was damaged due to "friendly fire."

The rhetoric used mirrors typical Russian propaganda tactics. Phrases like "the friend-or-foe recognition system failed" are employed, similar to the direct analogy of the "unauthorized missile launch" in the Voronezh region. It's as if the munition possesses free will – deciding on its own and causing destruction. This is done to shift responsibility away from anticipation and avoid seeking culprits. It's portrayed as a technical failure, a mundane occurrence.

The "friendly fire" version is introduced as the lesser evil.

The Kremlin cannot allow Russians to entertain the idea that Ukraine can shoot down deficit-ridden planes deep in Russian territory, as it would have a strong demoralizing impact, especially on the occupying forces in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Technical glitches and military incompetence are organic explanations for Russia.

The problem for the Kremlin is that the mentioned planes were highly specific and flew predictably. Russians themselves question in comments: what could have happened for these planes to suddenly stop recognizing targets? And why both at the same time?

By introducing this version, the Russian authorities indirectly remind everyone of the danger the Russian military poses to the civilian population and itself. Episodes in the Voronezh region and Belgorod, along with yesterday's "incident," show that Russian aviation bombs anything, and Russian air defense fires indiscriminately in all directions.

The key point is the damage to the combat potential of the Russian forces. There are only 7 or 8 long-range reconnaissance aircraft in Russia, and their technical condition is unknown (one such aircraft was damaged in Belarus last year and hastily evacuated to Russia). Russia is incapable of producing these planes, and the question of whether they can be repaired remains uncertain. If even a couple are unserviceable, it's a problem for the scale of Russia.

Russian propaganda is already attempting to balance the narrative by disseminating messages about Ukrainian aviation losses, front collapses, etc. However, an unpleasant message for the Kremlin is taking root in the information space: Russia lacks resilience in critical technologies, and due to the attack on Ukraine, the Russian army is incurring irreparable losses of scarce equipment. The loss of which will be compensated for by cannon fodder.

It is quite likely that, to shift people's attention, the Russian authorities will urgently demand the military to organize some kind of "victory," to "capture" a village, which will lead to even greater casualties for Russian forces."