Anatoliy Amelin: The cessation of gas exports to Europe is a major Game Changer and strengthens the negotiating position of Ukraine

By Anatoliy Amelin

It seems that the shutdown of Russia's gas exports to Europe is yet another major Game Changer on our part.

Negotiations are ongoing. Informally, you could call them "consultations."

But they are happening. Russia is in a very tight spot.

Its demands are seen as unreasonable by everyone. But it insists and raises the stakes. Sometimes it makes threats with "nuts," sometimes it brings in Koreans for a meat grinder, sometimes it targets Kyiv's government contracts, and sometimes it threatens nuclear strikes.

But Ukraine, over the last year or two, has also learned how to raise the stakes.

The previous Game Changer was the Kursk region. Today, the Game Changer is the cessation of Russian gas transit to Europe. This leads to Russia losing its primary premium market and influence over European politicians.

Here’s the statistics on Russian gas transit through Ukraine:

• In 1992-1994, it ranged from 122.9 to 128.9 billion cubic meters.
• In 1995 – 137.7 billion cubic meters,
• In 1996 – 139.9 billion cubic meters,
• In 1997 – 133.2 billion cubic meters,
• In 1998 – 141.1 billion cubic meters,
• In 1999 – 133.3 billion cubic meters,
• In 2000-2003, it dropped to 120-129 billion cubic meters,
• In 2004 – 137.1 billion cubic meters,
• In 2005 – 136.4 billion cubic meters,
• In 2006 – 128.5 billion cubic meters,
• In 2007 – 115.2 billion cubic meters,
• In 2008 – 119.6 billion cubic meters,
• In 2009 – 95.8 billion cubic meters,
• In 2010 – 98.6 billion cubic meters,
• In 2011 – 104.2 billion cubic meters,
• In 2012 – 84.3 billion cubic meters,
• In 2013 – 86.1 billion cubic meters,
• In 2014 – 62.2 billion cubic meters,
• In 2015 – 67.1 billion cubic meters,
• In 2016 – 82.2 billion cubic meters,
• In 2017 – 93.5 billion cubic meters,
• In 2018 – 86.8 billion cubic meters,
• In 2019 – 89.6 billion cubic meters,
• In 2020 – 55.8 billion cubic meters,
• In 2021 – 41.6 billion cubic meters,
• In 2022 – 20.4 billion cubic meters,
• In 2023 – 14.65 billion cubic meters,
• In 2024 – 15.4 billion cubic meters.

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How Russia's Share in the European Gas Market Has Changed

In 2021, Russia was the largest exporter of oil and natural gas to the European Union, supplying 40% of the gas consumed in the EU.

• 2009: 25% of the total gas demand in the region
• 2021: 45% of the total natural gas imports to the European Union
• 2022: 24% of the total natural gas imports to the European Union
• 2023: 15% of the total natural gas imports to the European Union
• 2024 (Q2): 18% of the value of natural gas imports to the European Union from non-EU countries
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In 2025, the share will approach zero.

What Does Gas Export Mean for Russia's Budget?

There is little information, but from 2015 to 2019, when transit volumes were significant, revenue from gas exports to Europe (including Ukraine) accounted for 5-10% of Russia's budget.

It’s not as much as oil revenues (which accounted for 30% of budget revenues), but still significant.

With the loss of the majority of gas exports to Europe, Russia is not just losing income and budget replenishment.

The main loss for Russia is:

• The inability to influence European politics through gas
• The inability to sign long-term contracts with European countries at discounted prices in exchange for loyalty
• The inability to pay bribes to European politicians through joint ventures dealing with Russian gas imports (RosUkrEnergo was not just a middleman; billions of dollars ended up in the pockets of Ukrainian politicians, who in 2025 will be eager to seize power).

Thus, the cessation of gas exports to Europe is a major Game Changer and strengthens the negotiating position of Ukraine and our partners.