Aqil Rustamzade: if Russia, as a state, does not crumble under the burden of its problems, then Ukraine’s recovery of the borders of 1991 will not give anything
Kyiv’s partners also understand this, so they supply weapons in a dosed manner so that political and economic instruments also work.
Noticeable shifts in the Russian elite occurred after the failure of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region. The so-called “hawks” have become stronger, including military correspondents and propagandists on the central channels. As a result, Vladimir Putin caved in under Yevgeny Prigozhin and Ramzan Kadyrov, awarding the latter with another rank after running into the Russian command (!). The war strategy has changed. And if for Patriarch Kirill, this is already a real crusade, and for Kadyrov, it is a jihad, then for Putin, it is an announced partial mobilization of people and the economy.
Putin and his entourage know that losing to Ukraine is the collapse of Russia. Rates are maximum. Therefore, during an interview with ZN, military analyst Aqil Rustamzade predicted how the situation could develop.
“I have always said that this war will end with a split in Russia. However, this understanding has only come to the Russians themselves. They feel that they are losing their country. Not yet realising that this is not only Putin’s problem but that they all signed up for it, – the expert noted.- The level of support for the war in Ukraine varies, according to various sources, from 70 to 85%. This is the collective responsibility of the Russians. Yes, there may be some internal troubles and showdowns; someone will be raised, someone – lower, but it is unlikely that even the loss of Kherson will lead to significant shifts in the minds of Russians, in the minds of the Russian political elite.
Most likely, they will try to take a break, and enter the negotiation process, so that, say, in two or three or five years, they will start new military operations,” Rustamzade believes. But the civilized world understands this. As well as the fact that rogue states like Russia and Iran are an ongoing threat for everyone.
“Therefore, these countries will fall apart and will not give them the opportunity to preserve their territory. They will be divided. Therefore, I have big doubts that someone will force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia,” the expert said.
He added that despite this, Ukraine’s partners do not want to significantly increase the offensive potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine so that not only military tools but also political and economic ones work against the Russian Federation.
“That’s why they do not give you weapons in full; they measure your offensive capabilities. And this is to your advantage. If Russia, as a state, does not crumble under the weight of its problems, then your exit to the 1991 borders will give nothing; you will remain under the same threat. And this is the right approach. When all the tools are working and squeezing, the enemy is slow. It’s one thing when you are squeezed like a rat and have to do something. It’s quite another to press day after day when you start to get used to and weaken in reactions,” Rustamzade explained.