Arestovich: Russia сan't hold onto the South
Just a few days ago, there was news in the media about the FSB allegedly urging Putin to remove Shoigu, initiate a full-scale total mobilization and deploy all these forces to Ukraine. During a live broadcast with Yuriy Romanenko, Alexey Arestovich discussed key trends in the context of the war with Russia.
"This message is an information operation designed to create political pressure. It's at about the same level as the information about the Wagner PMC in Belarus, which "threatens Poland, Lithuania, and NATO."
Alexey Arestovich stated that Russia could conscript up to 7 million people, but the question of arming this entire group remains a significant concern.
"Their (the Russians') military potential is quite uneven at the moment. They still possess means for air attacks: suicide drones, missiles, etc. They will strike us and target our infrastructure. Well, first of all, I believe that the strikes will be less intense than they were last winter. Secondly, they can attack us with aviation and suicide drones, but what about the ground? So, they won't be able to create an offensive potential. Viktor Andrusiv (Executive Director of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, former advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs - ed.) pointed out very clearly: to create an army's offensive potential that would advance into our territory, which we have all laid out here, Russia spent 700 billion dollars and 10 years."
"They won't be able to do anything similar in the near future," Arestovich is convinced. "Despite all the limitations of sanctions and gray schemes - they are working to remove the technological component of the Russian army. Despite the fact that they managed to launch the military industry in three shifts and everything else, they have four shortcomings: the political leadership setting unrealistic tasks, the military command is quite weak compared to ours, tactics, and equipment. They have two strong things: electromagnetic warfare and drones. These are the two breakthroughs they managed to make. They cause us significant trouble on the battlefield. This is a defensive strategy.
If someone had said two years ago that in two years we would be discussing the success of the Ukrainian offensive against Russian forces, while they are on the defensive, no one would have believed it. No one would have believed that the Russian army could be on the defensive, and we would be attacking them, while they report leaving village after village. The fact that the Russian army is on the defensive after invading Ukraine - that's a verdict for them.
And they won't be able to create an offensive potential. From a political point of view, the situation is repeating what happened last autumn. When we took Kherson, there was backstage bargaining with the West. About not entering the winter campaign, but he responded with strikes on infrastructure. He responded with entering the winter campaign, mobilization, and was immediately handed a sentence by The Hague. Personally, he's held responsible for the decision. Now, it's more or less the same. They will strongly urge us to stop. They will try to persuade him not to enter the winter campaign. Of course, he won't listen, he'll go into the winter campaign, but I think their pants will split. He can't realistically hold onto the South."