After recent strikes, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has shifted a significant portion of its capabilities further east. While they potentially could regain the initiative in the western part of the Black Sea, it is unlikely that they will do so.
This information comes from an intelligence review by the British Ministry of Defense regarding the war on October 14th.
After a series of Ukrainian strikes on Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) targets in August and September, the BSF is likely orienting more towards defense and response, according to intelligence. Many significant assets, including cruise missile carriers and submarines, have been relocated from Sevastopol to more eastern operational areas and bases like Novorossiysk, the review notes.
Analysts observe that since July 2022, Ukraine has seized the initiative in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, forcing the Russian fleet to constantly defend against maritime and aerial drone attacks, missile strikes, and special operations.
However, despite this, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has largely continued its training, vessel maintenance, and defense activities, all while continuing to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine. Intelligence suggests that this pattern is likely to persist even after the ships are relocated to the eastern part of the Black Sea.
Intelligence notes that a significant portion of the Russian BSF's capabilities remains undamaged, and the fleet might attempt to regain the initiative in the western part of the Black Sea due to its conventional superiority in firepower.
"The risk of further military losses and the dire political consequences of Russian naval forces overtly attacking merchant shipping would highly likely outweigh any gain from attempting to enforce a blockade of Ukrainian-bound trade," say analysts.
