Main image: Shutterstock, photo editor: Arthur Aleskerov
Experts from Chatham House presented a study on how Belarusians perceive the 2025 presidential elections.
Most Belarusians are uncertain about voting — the percentage of those confident in their participation is significantly lower than in 2020. According to a 2020 survey, 75% of Belarusians were sure they would vote, but today, this figure has dropped to 36%.
Only 45% of respondents believe that the votes in the elections will be counted fairly.
Belarusians are little engaged in the election campaign, and the only part of society that is satisfied with how the elections will proceed is the supporters of pro-government views.
As for the wider society, it remains generally dissatisfied with the situation in the country. The economy raises the most questions — 41% of respondents consider it the main problem and are dissatisfied with inflation and rising prices. Other problematic areas include security (17%), domestic politics (14%), foreign policy (10%), and healthcare (9%).
Most respondents, even those from pro-government circles, support the idea of a "thaw" after the elections, but few believe in it. A full 57% of pro-government respondents support, to some extent, the idea of improving relations with the West, and 34% of them support the government continuing to release political prisoners.
As for other categories of respondents, 53% are willing to support improving relations with the West to some extent. And 48% of non-governmental Belarusians support the government continuing to release political prisoners.
At the same time, respondents often chose the "difficult to answer" option: for example, 43% of non-governmental respondents chose this option when asked about supporting the further release of political prisoners. This response was also frequently chosen by Lukashenko's supporters.
Anti-war sentiments remain in society. Russia is fully or partially supported in the war by 32% of respondents, while 40% do not support it. Nearly a third — 29% — chose the "difficult to answer" option. This may indicate that a large portion of respondents prefer not to answer such a question for security reasons. Over three years of war, according to Chatham House surveys, Belarusian opinions on this matter have not changed much.
The survey in question was conducted in December 2024 to January 2025, with 833 Belarusians participating. The authors of the study acknowledge that the results of such surveys in Belarus could be distorted due to fear — some respondents are afraid to express critical opinions about the government.
