The north of Russia is experiencing the negative impact of climate change, which is occurring three times faster than in the south. Official Moscow is trying to cope with the melting permafrost, infrastructure destruction, and the isolation of settlements and military bases in the north, while maintaining the operations of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). A study by Paul Goble for The Jamestown Foundation explores how climate change, combined with increasing competition in the Arctic, is undermining Putin’s expansionist Arctic plans.
Due to the costs of the war against Ukraine, Russia is postponing or even canceling plans to repair and build road and railway infrastructure in the north. Russia is also facing competition in the Arctic Ocean, as foreign vessels can now transport goods via the NSR without using Russian icebreakers.
Additionally, oil and gas extracted from the Russian north often do not reach central Russia, where they could be used or exported. All of Russia's northern infrastructure was built with the assumption of permafrost, so its thawing undermines the integrity of pipelines, airfields, and the viability of road transport.
With the further "warming" of Arctic territory, Moscow will increasingly feel the threat to its plans in the region. This could push Russia towards new military actions, as the Kremlin will be inclined to respond more aggressively to any new international presence in the region. However, it should be noted that Russia lacks the necessary infrastructure, sufficient population, and strong military bases in the north to support such actions.
Executive Summary:
- The Russian North is negatively impacted by climate change at a rate that is three times faster than in the south. The thawing permafrost, faltering infrastructure, and isolation of the population centers and military bases in Russia’s North place additional requirements on Moscow as it attempts to sustain Northern Sea Route activities and its own Arctic ambitions.
- This problem has grown worse since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has forced Moscow to delay or cancel plans to repair and build more road and rail infrastructure in the North at a time when rivers in many parts of the region no longer freeze hard or long enough to serve as ice roads.
- These developments, in turn, have been exacerbated by the “Atlantification” of the Arctic, meaning Russia now faces greater competition, as the Arctic Ocean itself is ice-free longer each year, allowing foreign vessels to transit without relying on Russian icebreakers.
