Russia could significantly escalate the conflict in the coming months and launch highly dangerous and disruptive operations directly on the territory of NATO member states, according to Michal Koudelka, director of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS).
As reported by Ynetnews, the Czech counterintelligence chief warned that Russia is pursuing a dangerous and high-risk strategy known as "escalate to de-escalate", deliberately raising the stakes to exert political and military pressure on Western countries providing substantial defence assistance to Ukraine.
Koudelka said potential Russian hybrid operations could include sabotage targeting critical infrastructure and logistics networks, missile strikes or large-scale drone attacks against weapons and ammunition depots supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In the most extreme scenario, the Czech intelligence chief did not rule out limited military provocations against neighbouring NATO member states.
However, he stressed that a direct, full-scale Russian invasion of NATO territory does not currently represent an immediate or imminent threat, as Russia's main military forces and resources remain concentrated on its war against Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Koudelka warned that the Kremlin's hybrid operations, including sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, pursue a clear strategic objective: undermining NATO's internal cohesion and preventing a coordinated response from Western allies.
