Russians have predicted 15 possible military conflict scenarios by 2045, six of which are related to Northern Europe.
This was stated by Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, during a roundtable discussion at Ukrinform on "New Contours of European Security."
"Six of them are related to Northern Europe. And… Northern Europe understands this, the Baltic states understand it. Poland understands it. Poland alone has four possible military conflict scenarios. Poland currently realizes that this is a direct threat," he said.
According to Skibitskyi, Russia has a clear understanding of its place and role in the modern world and its position in the global leadership system. The general noted that Russia had previously made a corresponding forecast for 2026–2035, with a perspective up to 2045, identifying four key scenarios:
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Absolute U.S. leadership.
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The growing role of China.
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A multipolar world where Russia also sees itself.
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Regionalization, as they call it—essentially dividing influence by regions.
"We are already witnessing this in practice. And… in these documents, Russia explicitly stated that the 'Ukrainian issue' must be resolved by 2026. Their strategic analyses and forecasts are based on this timeline. Because if the war continues for another 5–10 years, Russia will never be able to catch up and stand on equal footing with the U.S. and China. It will remain a regional player on the Eastern European level," Skibitskyi said.
Additionally, the HUR representative emphasized that Russian aggression against Ukraine did not begin in 2014 but immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
"You all remember Crimea, Tuzla, and other issues. And… the role of our state in recognizing and shaping new approaches to the European security system is, in essence, invaluable," Skibitskyi noted.
Pavlo Zhovnirenko, Chairman of the Board of the NGO Center for Strategic Studies, expressed the opinion that the new European security structure should not be exclusively European.
"It simply cannot be purely European because a geographical approach does not work. This union must be based on principles of values," he stated.
The event was organized by the Institute for Global Policy.
