Lukashenko is failing to sustain Belarus’s deteriorating economy. In an attempt to curb inflation, authorities are once again resorting to administrative price controls while accelerating cash emissions — a key driver of inflation.
In the first half of the year, the cash supply grew by 11%. Circulating cash rose from around $3.63 billion (11.8 billion BYN) on January 1 to approximately $4.06 billion (13.2 billion BYN) by June 1.
Monthly increases in April and May were about $110 million, rising to over $140 million in June.
Despite pledges to restrict consumer lending, household debt hit a record $8.74 billion (28.4 billion BYN) as of July 1 — nearly 6% higher than at the start of the year.
Cash growth is outpacing economic growth nearly fourfold over the first five months. According to Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, no major changes are expected this summer.
Belarus’s reliance on price controls without regard for market dynamics, combined with large-scale cash injections, is fueling inflation — especially as money supply grows faster than the real economy.
