The IMF staff’s main scenario under the Monitoring Program with the Board of Directors (PMB) suggests that Ukraine will need to purchase 5 billion cubic meters of gas in 2023, spread evenly over 12 months.

According to the schedule presented in the documents, without imports, Ukraine will leave this heating season with reserves of 6 billion cubic meters and by the next heating season will only be able to increase them to 8.5 billion cubic meters, which will cause their fall to 6 billion cubic meters by the beginning of 2024.

At the same time, taking into account imports, gas reserves at the end of this heating season will be only slightly below 9 billion cubic meters, and by the next will increase to almost 14 billion cubic meters, which is only about 0.5 billion cubic meters less than at the beginning of this season.

To help Naftogaz meet the associated increase in financing needs, the government is already providing budget support to the company through an implicit subsidy in the form of lost revenues from rent payments for gas, which is estimated at about UAH 145 billion ($3.5 billion) for 2023.

From documentation of PMB, IMF’s website

At the same time, IMF experts suggest that more support is likely to be needed, including as compensation for utility service obligations due to the fixing of the retail gas price at 7.4 UAH per cubic meter – well below the import parity price.

They added that the Heating Utility Company (HUC) and Gas Transmission System Operator (GTSO), whose liquidity suffers due to lower transit fees and low capacity usage, may also need support.

“In general, according to staff estimates, up to UAH 150 billion ($3.6 billion) in the form of additional financial support to Naftogaz, UGTSU and TKE may be required in 2023,” the IMF experts said.