In 2024, Ukraine's real GDP grew by 2.9%. This is slower compared to 2023, when GDP growth was recorded at 5.5%, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) press service.
The NBU explains that the slowdown in economic growth in 2024 was expected due to three key factors:
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The security situation in Ukraine
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The electricity deficit
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Low harvests
However, the economy was supported by high domestic demand, soft fiscal policy, business adaptability, and maintaining macrofinancial stability.
Key indicators shaping GDP growth in 2024: The largest contribution to real GDP growth in 2024 came from private consumption. Household consumer spending increased by 6.8%, supported by high real wage growth. The physical volume of exports grew for the first time since 2019, by 10.3%, due to the stable operation of the maritime corridor. The largest negative indicator in 2024 came from agriculture. Gross Value Added (GVA) in this sector decreased by 7.3% due to a lower harvest. GVA in the public administration and defense sector grew by 2.4% in 2024, while education grew by 10.8% and healthcare by 4.3%. Budget expenditures on fortifications, repairs of critical infrastructure, and other restoration projects ensured a 16.2% increase in the construction sector's GVA.
According to NBU forecasts, Ukraine's economy will continue to grow in 2025. This trend will be supported by an expected increase in harvests, a reduction in the electricity deficit, and a recovery in external demand. However, economic growth will still be limited by the full-scale war, including labor shortages and damage to infrastructure and production capacities.
