Trump is acting upon the reality that successful US efforts to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table require that economic instruments be coupled with Western military support to allow Ukraine to increase pressure on Russia on the battlefield.
Trump stated that the Russian economy is doing "very poorly" and that Russia is using its assets for war, not trade. Trump stated that Russia is wasting money and people on its war. Rutte stated that Russian forces have suffered 100,000 deaths since January 1, 2025. ISW continues to assess that Russia's battlefield losses are the key driver of Russia's economic woes as Russia suffers from the consequences of increased and unsustainable war spending, growing inflation, significant labor shortages, and reductions in Russia's sovereign wealth fund.
Increased pressure on Russian forces on the battlefield would risk Putin's efforts to balance butter and guns and could force Putin to face hard choices sooner than he would like. Forcing Putin either to make unpopular decisions or to face a scenario in which Russia cannot continue the war at the current tempo could bring Putin to the negotiating table, ready to offer concessions to end the war on terms acceptable to Ukraine and the United States.
Trump noted that Russia has been delaying negotiations to end the war and that the recent intensification of Russia's overnight drone and missile strikes demonstrates that Russia is not interested in peace – in line with ISW's longstanding assessment of Kremlin intentions. Trump stated that he is "disappointed" in Putin and that Trump has thought that a peace settlement was close "about four times."Trump noted that Russian strikes are hitting residences in Ukrainian cities and that it will take Ukraine "years" to rebuild its damaged energy infrastructure. Trump stated that Russian strikes against Ukrainian cities show that Russia's "talk does not mean anything" and that the United States needs to see actions and results, not just "talk." Rutte added that the recent intensification of Russia's overnight drone and missile strikes is not aimed at pursuing military goals but trying to create panic in Ukraine. ISW has repeatedly assessed in recent months that the Kremlin was pursuing various methods as part of wider efforts to delay the negotiation process and prolong the war in order to secure additional territorial gains on the battlefield.
Trump stated that "having a strong Europe is a very good thing" and that Europe thinks supporting Ukraine is important.[6] Rutte stated that Trump's July 14 announcements are building on the June 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, in which NATO decided to "keep Ukraine strong" and increase Europe's defense industrial production. The joint declaration from the NATO summit highlighted that Ukraine's security contributes to NATO's security. Axios on July 13 cited a source stating that Trump told French President Emmanuel Macron following the call that Putin "wants to take all of [Ukraine]."
ISW continues to assess that a Russian victory in the war that results in the conquest of all of Ukraine would bring combat experienced Russian forces up to NATO's borders from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean such that the United States would need to move large numbers of US forces and commit a significant proportion of its fleet of stealth aircraft to Europe.
