Currently, only 8 of Russia's 15 Tu-160 strategic bombers and 36 of its 45 Tu-95MS bombers are reportedly capable of flying.
Russia's strategic aviation faces significant limitations. For example, Tu-95MS bombers can now carry a maximum of four Kh-101 cruise missiles per sortie, compared with eight previously. Their annual flight-hour limit can be estimated at around 200 hours. Meanwhile, the Tu-160 has a reputation for being particularly demanding to maintain and poorly suited to regular, routine missions.
This suggests that Russia is not counting on a single "decisive strike" but is instead preparing for another prolonged campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The emphasis will be less on the actual scale of destruction and more on demoralising the civilian population.
Since 2023, Russia has pursued a concept of "operations to exhaust potential", in which large-scale strikes are intended to achieve primarily psychological effects, with physical destruction taking secondary importance.
Russia is demonstrating its willingness to sacrifice its own future in an attempt either to bomb Ukraine into submission or to suppress its resistance.
This, in turn, leaves us with little choice but to defend ourselves and support those who are defending the country.
