Main image: Russian soldier with a patch showing the face of Vladimir Putin. Photo: PAP/EPA
Russia could deploy so-called “little green men” on the territory of Baltic states to carry out sabotage and provocations. The seriousness of such a threat from Russia was officially warned about by the head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency, Colonel Paweł Szoła, in his first interview with Polish media RP.
According to the intelligence chief, the Polish agency is currently carefully analyzing various scenarios of Russian provocations against the Baltic states, including covert offensive actions involving troops without insignia, as already happened during the seizure of Crimea and Donbas.
The main goal of the Kremlin in such scenarios is to gradually shift red lines and test NATO’s response firmness. Szoła expressed regret that the cost of such aggressive actions for Moscow remains very low, since NATO responds mainly at the political level, and the lack of a proportional response encourages further escalation.
The real and direct military threat to Poland and other countries on NATO’s eastern flank currently comes exclusively from Russia, which sees these states as the main obstacle to its global imperial ambitions. Observing the difficult course of the war in Ukraine, Polish analysts see additional cause for concern, as Vladimir Putin, stuck in a deadlock, is seeking to further escalate the international situation.
The war against Ukraine has become a major personal and geopolitical humiliation for the Russian president, as Russia’s intelligence services and military miscalculated, expecting a quick and easy victory. As a result, ending the conflict has become a matter of personal honor for Putin, and he aims to ensure it is remembered as a strategic success. This factor makes Russian behavior highly unpredictable. Colonel Szoła stressed that Russia has sufficient resources to continue fighting in Ukraine for several more years, as the Kremlin is willing to sacrifice economic welfare, investment, and development to achieve victory.
At the same time, the head of Polish intelligence expressed deep concern about the rapid absorption of Belarus by Russia, with the neighboring country falling under increasingly tight control from Moscow. Construction is underway in Belarus on specialized closed facilities intended for long-term deployment of modern Russian nuclear delivery systems, including the “Oreshnik” systems, alongside joint training and nuclear exercises.
Meanwhile, Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency continues to maintain working technical communication channels with Minsk, which has previously yielded results, including the release of political prisoner Andrzej Poczobut. Summing up the situation, Colonel Szoła stated that Poland does not intend to passively observe hostile actions from Russia and Belarus, and that Warsaw possesses the necessary modern tools to conduct its own effective offensive operations, including in global cyberspace.
