In the arsenal of the aggressor state Russia, there remain 585 missiles with a range of over 500 kilometers.
This was stated by the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Vadim Skibitsky, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
"If we talk about ballistic and cruise missiles Iskander, then, according to our data, they currently have around 270 units. The stock of Kalibr missiles is approximately 140. There are fewer X-101 missiles, but the total number of X-101, X-555, and X-55 missiles with warheads, according to our calculations, is around 100," said the representative of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence.
Vadim Skibitsky added that the Russians could also have about 75 air-launched ballistic missiles Kinzhal as well as 150 X-22 missiles, which the aggressor aims to improve.
"The modified versions have a new index - X-32. According to our data, the Russians can produce no more than 10 units of these modernized missiles per month," said the representative of Ukrainian Military Intelligence.
According to him, due to reaching a critical threshold and the intention to accumulate high-precision X-101 missiles, the aggressor has reduced the frequency of their use.
"According to the plans, the Russians can produce around 40 X-101 missiles per month, but we already know for sure that these plans are not being executed by them. Firstly, this is due to a shortage of foreign components. The second factor is that Russia is trying to stockpile these missiles, which are considered more accurate and effective when compared, for example, to the X-555, X-22, or even the 'Caliber' cruise missiles that we successfully intercept," Vadim Skibitsky noted.
The representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has reported that in August 2023, the Russians planned to manufacture 6 Kinzhal missiles, 30 Iskander-M missiles, 12 Iskander-K missiles, 20 Kalibr missiles, and around 40 X-101 missiles. However, the actual production of certain types of these missiles lags behind the plans.
Russia's inability to produce missiles in the planned quantities has led to a change in firing tactics: now the aggressor combines missiles of different classes, carefully selects targets, meticulously determines routes to bypass Ukraine's air defense system, and makes quicker decisions on strikes.
If the Russians receive information about the urgent need to target a specific location in Ukraine, they use more accurate and faster missiles, as was the case during the recent attack in Chernihiv, where the enemy used the cruise missile Iskander-K.
"Iskander missile brigades are positioned along the entire border – in Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod regions, as well as on our occupied territories, including Crimea. Consequently, our regions and areas closer to the front line and the Ukrainian-Russian border are under threat, as the flight time of these missiles to their target is a matter of minutes. Reacting quickly to their use is extremely challenging," explained Vadim Skibitsky.
The change in rocket attack tactics could be linked to the enemy's intention to accumulate weaponry before the autumn-winter period to again target Ukraine's energy system.
The representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense reminded that the enemy continues reconnaissance to identify suitable targets, works on various approaches for missile and drone strikes, and seeks routes to bypass Ukraine's anti-aircraft defense.
"However, massive barrages like those in October, November, and December, when they launched 70-100 missiles simultaneously, are unlikely to happen again: the Russians realize that they may not achieve their goal, but instead deplete their reserves, as happened last year," Vadim Skibitsky summarized.
