Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 43 Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers have been destroyed and another seven aircraft of this type have been damaged. This was reported by the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU).
According to the agency, these losses are significant for Russia's military aviation fleet, as replacing the aircraft requires lengthy production cycles, substantial financial resources and specialised industrial cooperation.
For comparison, the number of destroyed Su-34s is equivalent to approximately 2.5–3 years of production, based on estimated manufacturing capacity of 14–18 aircraft annually.
As of 22 October, according to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian Aerospace Forces operated approximately 140 Su-34 aircraft of various modifications, including upgraded Su-34M (Su-34NVO) versions.
The agency emphasised that the number of Su-34 aircraft in Russia's fleet does not fully reflect its actual combat capabilities. A comprehensive assessment must also consider the technical condition of the aircraft, the number of trained crews, operational intensity, maintenance capacity and the ability to replace losses.
According to DIU, Su-34 aircraft are among the key components of Russia's strike aviation in its war against Ukraine. Their use as platforms for launching guided aerial bombs has enabled Russia to expand its ability to strike ground targets, particularly in areas of active hostilities and frontline settlements.
Despite significant combat losses, Russia continues to manufacture and modernise Su-34 aircraft in an effort to maintain its fleet and sustain the intensity of missile and bombing attacks.
The potential for further expansion depends on production capacity, access to technological components and the ability of Russia's military-industrial complex to compensate for losses.
Serial production of the Su-34 is concentrated at the V. P. Chkalov Novosibirsk Aircraft Plant, which is part of Russia's United Aircraft Corporation. The plant's production facilities are estimated to be capable of manufacturing approximately 14–18 aircraft of this type annually.
Priority is being given to the production of upgraded Su-34M aircraft, which feature improved onboard equipment and expanded capabilities for deploying aviation weapons. The modernisation programme aims to increase aircraft effectiveness based on combat experience gained during the war against Ukraine.
At the same time, production resources are divided between the needs of the Russian military and export orders. In particular, some manufacturing capacity is being used to fulfil a contract to supply Su-34ME aircraft to Algeria.
This places additional pressure on the production system, forcing Russia to balance replenishing its own aircraft fleet with fulfilling international contractual obligations.
"However, between 22 October 2025 and 22 October 2026, the Russian Aerospace Forces received 22 new Su-34 aircraft. This figure exceeds the estimated annual production volume of 14–18 aircraft," DIU reported.
Intelligence data indicates that during the initial stage of the full-scale invasion, Russian forces primarily used Su-34 aircraft to bomb ground targets with unguided aerial bombs, including FAB-250, FAB-500 M-62 and BetAB-500 concrete-piercing bombs.
The use of these weapons required aircraft to approach their targets more closely, increasing their vulnerability to Ukrainian air defence systems.
At the same time, Russia began using Su-34 aircraft to launch Kh-31 and Kh-59 guided air-to-surface missiles and, in some cases, Kh-35U anti-ship missiles against ground targets.
According to DIU, a fundamental shift in Russian aviation tactics occurred with the widespread introduction of aerial bombs equipped with Universal Planning and Correction Modules (UMPK).
Combining Su-34 aircraft with relatively inexpensive UMPK guidance kits became one of the decisive factors in expanding Russia's aerial strike capabilities.
These glide and correction modules allow Russian forces to convert substantial stockpiles of conventional aerial bombs into guided weapons that can be launched from a distance.
This reduces the risks to the aircraft carrying them, as Su-34s can remain outside the engagement range of some Ukrainian air defence systems.
The use of Su-34 aircraft in Russia's scorched-earth tactics has resulted in extensive infrastructure destruction, civilian deaths and the forced displacement of survivors from frontline communities.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia's aircraft manufacturing industry remains dependent on a complex supply chain of electronic components, high-tech equipment and specialised materials.
Particularly important are components used in onboard electronics, navigation systems, communications and electronic warfare equipment, as well as industrial and measuring equipment required to manufacture modern aircraft.
International sanctions complicate Russian manufacturers' access to certain critical technologies. Under these conditions, Russia continues to use intermediary companies, third countries and alternative import channels to meet the needs of its military-industrial complex.
"In this context, strengthening sanctions pressure on Russia remains an urgent priority. This includes the ability to close sanctions-evasion loopholes, tighten export controls and restrict Russian companies' access to critical manufacturing technologies for the country's aircraft industry, which enables Moscow to continue its genocidal war against Ukraine," DIU concluded.
