Russia has no way to secretly build a fuel pipeline to Crimea, conceal an oil depot, or covertly transport hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel fuel from India. Such activities cannot be hidden in principle.
Even if storage tanks themselves are camouflaged, transportation activity remains visible. Any fuel pipeline or oil depot would require a constant flow of fuel trucks, which are easily detectable. There would be queues at entrances and exits, large waiting areas for vehicles, and increased traffic during specific hours.
In addition to transportation, oil depots are connected to other infrastructure: railway lines or major roads, pumping stations, pipelines, and fire safety systems. Petroleum products are consumed in enormous quantities, making it impossible to conceal the entire logistics chain. Any major logistics hub is highly visible.
A fuel tanker must also reach a port and dock for unloading. At that moment, it becomes an obvious target. Fuel trains from Belarus would be vulnerable to drone attacks as soon as they cross into Russian territory. Moreover, Belarus does not have enough fuel reserves to supply Russia on such a scale.
Claims about producing cheap gasoline “in a backyard” are unrealistic. Such “fuel” would likely damage vehicle engines faster than Ukrainian drones could.
If Ukraine has gained access to large quantities of cheap, accurate, long-range strike capabilities, it means that anything in Russia that can burn will be at risk.
If Russia retains any sense of self-preservation, ending the war on any terms would be the only option that could still save what remains of the country.
