The Russian economy is facing increasing pressure from so-called “friendly” countries, which are quickly occupying niches left empty due to the investment pause. A high key interest rate, ineffective monetary policy, and a reduction in fiscal stimulus are effectively paralyzing domestic producers. Official figures for fixed capital investment appear stable, but this only reflects older assets, while the real decline reaches 1.5%.
Export revenues have already fallen by 20%, and the growing tax burden, including VAT, further limits business opportunities. Industrialists directly point to the slow reduction of the key interest rate and high credit costs as the main barriers to development. As a result, the market is opening up to Chinese suppliers of equipment and products, who gain control over segments lost by Russian companies without significant investment.
The most illustrative example is the heavy truck market. From January to October 2025, sales of vehicles over 14 tons fell by 54%, while the segment of long-haul tractors dropped by 71%. In total, only 37.9 thousand heavy vehicles were registered, 57% fewer than last year. Despite KAMAZ’s formal leadership with a 29.5% market share, Chinese brands Sitrak (16.3%), Shacman (10.8%), and FAW (9%) are effectively pushing it out of the market. Additional pressure comes from Belarusian MAZ with a 7.2% share.
The Russian manufacturer is doomed to further displacement from key segments, and recovering lost positions amid the aggressive expansion of “friendly” competitors is virtually impossible
