The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth at 1% in 2026, compared with 1.8% last year, according to an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent reporting from the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok.
According to the October World Economic Outlook (WEO), published on Tuesday morning, the IMF also kept its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2027 unchanged at 3.5%.
In June, the IMF downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2026 to 1–1.6%, compared with the 2% projected in its April WEO report and the 1.8–2.5% range estimated when the new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme was approved in late February.
During the programme's second review in June–July, the IMF projected an acceleration in GDP growth to 3.5% in 2027. However, most other analysts have since revised their forecasts downwards.
Last week, the World Bank lowered its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2027 from 4% to 1.5%, while maintaining its 2026 projection at 1.2%.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) also revised its outlook downwards in late September, forecasting GDP growth of 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In late September, Ukraine's Minister of Economy and Environment, Oleksandr Kravchenko, said the government could further downgrade its GDP growth forecast for 2027 by 0.3–0.5 percentage points from the already pessimistic projection of 1.3%, bringing it to 0.8–1%. The forecast for 2026 could also be reduced to 0.5%, compared with the current estimate of 1.6%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has lowered its estimate for real GDP growth this year to 1.1–1.2%, compared with the 1.8% forecast issued in late July.
Leading Ukrainian investment company Dragon Capital also significantly downgraded its macroeconomic outlook last week. It now expects Ukraine's GDP to contract by 0.5% in 2026 and by 1% in 2027. Before the escalation of the war in July, Dragon Capital had projected economic growth of 1.5% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027.
